Will Tumbles succeed in restructuring or bailing out the Tumbles Financial Complex?
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Ṁ1636
resolved May 4
Resolved
NO

Resolves to my judgement. If Tumbles pays off his creditors, or re-negotiates all his loans such that he no longer owes mana, that will count. Only counts peer to peer loans (not manifold).

Resolves NO if Tumbles still owes (uncancelled or un-negotiated) loans. This will be extended if Tumbles has negotiated a late payment. If Tumbles gives up on repaying his creditors, resolves NO

I will not bet in this market.

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devastating but great resolution

bought Ṁ100 NO

If this counts as success then poilievre’s campaign was a success

Does the restructuring need to happen before the close date for the market? Tumbles is taking loans that last until April 2026, so I think that implies this is a NO.

The close date is irrelevant. Either Tumbles defaults, or pays off his loans.

Is the description actually a typo? It says if I give up this resolves YES

I don't think I saw this market before now somehow! Adding it to the recently cleaned up Tumbles Financial Complex dashboard

Manifold's 1.4 million p2p loan will count for this market.

as a p2p loan needing to be paid off?

Yes

Bailing out Tumbles will cause massive inflation of mana since the money will not be taken away from anyone else, and there will be no real value created in the process. Doing so reduces the accuracy of various predictions on the site.

Tslabull and Isaac caused at least 4x the Tumbles inflation. This is ridiculous

not to mention that we actually reverse inflation if his Manifold loans don't default

@nikki How did Tslabull and Isaac get their Mana?

does this count the insolvency (manifold loans)?

no, only p2p loans

so the difference here vs /Tumbles/will-tumbles-ever-be-late-to-pay-ba is that he can be late?

yes

reposted

too big to fail?

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