On the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, to what levels will the 2025 Atlantic season storms reach?
18
Ṁ37k
Nov 30
62%
Will Gabrielle reach Category 1 wind speeds?
43%
Will Gabrielle reach Category 2 wind speeds?
31%
Will Gabrielle reach Category 3 wind speeds?
14%
Will Gabrielle reach Category 4 wind speeds?
11%
Will Gabrielle reach Category 5 wind speeds?
64%
Will Humberto reach Category 1 wind speeds?
50%
Will Humberto reach Category 2 wind speeds?
40%
Will Humberto reach Category 3 wind speeds?
34%
Will Humberto reach Category 4 wind speeds?
10%
Will Humberto reach Category 5 wind speeds?
66%
Will Imelda reach Category 1 wind speeds?
55%
Will Imelda reach Category 2 wind speeds?
49%
Will Imelda reach Category 3 wind speeds?
45%
Will Imelda reach Category 4 wind speeds?
10%
Will Imelda reach Category 5 wind speeds?
61%
Will Jerry reach Category 1 wind speeds?
50%
Will Jerry reach Category 2 wind speeds?
41%
Will Jerry reach Category 3 wind speeds?
34%
Will Jerry reach Category 4 wind speeds?
7%
Will Jerry reach Category 5 wind speeds?

Each storm/category will be considered a separate YES/NO market, resolved via reporting from https://weather.com/.

Markets will resolve YES within 48 hours of the reported Category upgrade. Markets will resolve NO within 48 hours of the reported dissipation of a named storm or on November 30, 2025, at 11:59 PM EST, whichever comes first.

To stay in line with the new league rules (https://manifold.markets/post/leagues-market-creator-updates#qh22z9Cq), I will no longer make any trades in markets that I created. (sps - 2025/09/03)

️ Weather2025 Hurricane SeasonHurricanesClimateExtreme Weather
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6 Comments
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Long-range market for the 2026 hurricanes

/ovals/on-the-saffirsimpson-hurricane-wind-EZARUCzsp5

bought Ṁ846 Answer #tSZRqPAspZ YES

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT5+shtml/161520.shtml
...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND ERIN IS NOW A CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...

Dexter never became a hurricane so can also resolve.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/
@ovals

Still waiting for Dexter to wind down as Erin becomes a Category 1

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hurricane-erin-track-path/

bought Ṁ150 Answer #gsCd9IzI6P NO

All the Andrea options can resolve NO.

Can you please tag the 2025 hurricane season?

@MachiNi Done

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