By "new" I mean any virus that is not a close mutation of any other viruses that currently in 2023 predictably infect humans
Update 2025-08-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has confirmed that a pre-existing virus like bird flu, which does not currently and predictably infect humans at scale, would count as 'new' for the purposes of this market if it were to do so in the future.
By "new" do you mean new strain or new species?
(e.g. SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 are two strains of the same species; would a SARS-CoV-3 count as "new"?)
Also, what counts as "regularly"? (e.g. would you say that in 2016 measles "regularly" infected humans, even though its incidence was 20ish cases per million people per year? what about MERS, which is contagious among humans but usually with R0 < 1?)
@ArmandodiMatteo I'd say that regular could be changed to predictably, for more specificity. I will change the phrasing of "mutation" to "close mutation" by which I'd imagine that it must rely on a slightly different mechanism.