🦃What will happen in November 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
72
Ṁ10k
Dec 1
June starts
July starts
Aug starts
93%
Trump wins Texas
92%
Pennsylvania votes for the winner
90%
Trump wins Florida
85%
Manifold reaches a peak in site traffic
74%
An American presidential candidate receiving over 10 million votes concedes.
61%
Democrats capture the House
58%
A lawsuit regarding the presidential election results is filed
57%
Trump wins North Carolina
57%
A tesla catches fire as reported by news or tesla-fire.com
56%
The Nintendo Switch successor system is offically revealed (including official name)
55%
Someone other than Joe Biden or Donald Trump elected President
55%
>=30% of Manifold respondents agree that weak AGI has been achieved in the monthly poll
47%
twitter releases peer to peer payment system to USA members, paid or unpaid users
47%
Donald Trump elected President
46%
NASDAQ hits an all time high
44%
Turnout will be over 160 million in the US presidential election
41%
Recount in Pennsylvania
39%
The AP declares a winner in the presidential election before 6 am the next day
39%
Jon Tester reelected
37%
Eagles have the most wins in the NFL

I reserve the right to NA any answer for any reason, to combat duplicates or abuse.

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bought Ṁ5 Eagles have the most... NO

How is "Jon Tester reelected" higher than "Democrats hold the Senate?" That doesn't make sense and is inconsistent.

That's perfectly reasonable. John Tester could be reelected with another Democratic incumbent losing their election (e.g., Sherrod Brown), which would still lead to Democrats losing the Senate. But it's almost impossible for them to win the Senate without John Tester.

chris @strutheo , there is another nVidia stock price here that you forgot to divide by ten.

bought Ṁ50 Answer #kpagi4ujww NO

I presume "Recount in Pennsylvania" only resolves YES if it's a recount for the Presidential race? There's bound to be some downballot recounts, but I don't think that was the intent.

sold Ṁ9 Donald Trump elected... YES

chris @strutheo , here's another of those "Joe Biden elected President" markets that you haven't resolved yet.

I'm not wasting my time on these markets anymore. I've followed your rules, @strutheo , and not added meta-market questions, and you keep wasting my time by closing questions.

Good luck. I'll be betting somewhere else.

@SteveSokolowski hey @SteveSokolowski , you add a lot of questions in advance which i am ok with, but i do choose to NA a few of them, because they are usually something that will sit at 99% for the next 10 months and don't strike me as interesting. i do have the right to NA any for any reason, as wrote in the description.

@SteveSokolowski no worries, they'll be here for you if you return!

@SteveSokolowski dude you have added SO MANY questions across all the month markets, i only NAed a few, leave some slots for the other people too, there are only 100 per question, and they're going to get filled up fast

@SteveSokolowski i just realized, maybe you arent seeing my comments when i NA them on the other markets

Understandable to NA if you don't want the same question on each one. Funny enough, November is probably the most likely month 😅 not that any of them are going to happen of course

Don't want to deal with this question? Lol

@Kraalnaxx i feel after 10 months of this one it will get old