💻Which of these apps/websites will still be working at the end of 2029? [ADD RESPONSES]
Mini
96
Ṁ6923
2030
98%
Obsidian (notetaking)
97%
Beeminder
97%
Manifold.markets
96%
Substack
94%
rdrama.net
92%
Notion
90%
Pornhub
90%
AnkiWeb
90%
Discord
88%
Uber
87%
4chan.org
86%
Hacker News (news.ycombinator.com)
85%
Tumblr
83%
Hinge
81%
Roam Research
80%
Logseq
80%
Dustloop
80%
SufficientVelocity forum
76%
Genius (Rap Genius)
76%
lobste.rs

Rules (work in progress)

  • If the domain is still there but only hosting a simple page instead of the original product/service, I will not count that as working

️ TechnologyCultureEntertainment and Pop CultureGamingInternetWeb FrontendWeb BrowserWebsitesApp StoresApps
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If the website is still there but has significantly reworked their product and gone through multiple owners, like Yahoo or MySpace, does it resolve yes?

Manifold.markets
bought Ṁ5 Manifold.markets NO

first thought: NO, could easily run out of money

second thought: YES, if the site is dead who cares about losing the bet

third thought: NO, there's a non-trivial chance that the domain could change (e.g. .markets gTLD changes ToS, ramps up prices, ceases to exist, etc.)

oh and there's also the chance that The Pivot changes the name...

By Lindy's law Beeminder will be around, in expectation, till 2036-12-11 or 2040-12-24, depending on what we count as Beeminder's creation date.

@dreev yay!

bought Ṁ20 Hinge YES

cool question chris

bought Ṁ10 Tumblr YES

What is dead may never die

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