@strutheo To be clear, all questions resolve YES/NO, not to poll percentage? And if the poll is tied, does it resolve 50%?

@yetforever correct, they only resolve yes or no

@strutheo Resolves YES

[deleted]

@Krantz

I’m surprised no one has voted on Qin Shi Huang yet

Just created a similar market but versus yourself instead of Trump

As founder and CEO of openasteroidimpact.org, I strongly contest the current top choice.

already did giuliani, want to pick another @StochasticParrot ? i renamed it placeholder

Heads up guys, these active options were unironically literal Nazis (or 'just' in the Nazi Wehrmacht):

• Karl Donitz

• Erich von Manstein

• Albert Speer

• Otto Skorzeny

• Hasso von Manteuffel

• Erwin Rommel

and these options were suspiciously Nazi-adjacent/enabling:

• Paul Von Hindenburg

• Erich Ludendorff

• Jozef Tiso

• Phillipe Petain

• Miklos Horthy

• Franz von Papen

and these options were confederates:

• James Longstreet

Manstein and von Manteuffel were not Nazis, the latter was moreover a moderating influence

Erich von Manstein:

Hasso von Manteuffel:

seems sus 🤔

Being in the wehrmacht does not imply being a Nazi

May I have permission to add this to my out-of-context quotes market? (if option creation costs become affordable ever again lol)

lol yes good one

Sure

You don't get a second chance with AI X-risk, and Yann seems quite likely to consistently and competently sabotage the AI safety efforts of others

Moreover, even if you think Trump would deal with it even worse, Yann's likely policies could make it much more likely that the take-off happens within his own presidency rather than whoever gets elected next

@TheAllMemeingEye

To quote @BrunoParga's comment:

"

Linus Pauling was a Nobel Prize-winning chemist, just like LeCun is a Turing Award winner for AI capabilities research.

Linus Pauling was really, really dumb about a closely related but distinct subject than the one he was an expert in, biochemistry - he believed in consuming massive amounts of vitamin C for your health.

Yann LeCun is really, really dumb about a closely related but distinct subject than the one he's an expert in, AI safety - he believes corporate law could control AGI (among other batshittery).

Both of them persevere because they are not aware of their ignorance in the relevant field.

The difference is that Pauling made expensive pee, and LeCun might get humanity

extinct

"

@TheAllMemeingEye

If Yann causes superintelligence alignment to fail, it will kill us and everyone we love.

https://time.com/6266923/ai-eliezer-yudkowsky-open-letter-not-enough/

"We are not ready. We are not on track to be significantly readier in the foreseeable future. If we go ahead on this everyone will die, including children who did not choose this and did not do anything wrong." - Eliezer Yudkowsky

Obviously it's not guaranteed, but I personally believe the chances are 20-40% of death.

Trump's veto is the reason the PATRIOT Act is no more, a bill I'd assume the modal Manifolder heavily dislikes

False: the House never passed the reauthorization, no veto took place.

he is died

@Lexer spoilers

@robm sorry. how do i deleted a comment

@Lexer you don't, but you can edit it to read "[deleted]" and nothing else