Will Extropic AI ship functional chips to customers by December 31st 2025?
Plus
14
Ṁ2728Dec 31
10%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Inspired by this tweet:
(https://x.com/BasedBeffJezos/status/1890771749727248794)
Help predict whether Extropic AI will successfully deliver "functional silicon thermodynamic chips to customers in 2025." Resolution will be based on public announcements from Extropic AI or credible sources confirming actual shipment of working chips to customers.
For a positive resolution the chips shipped must be actual thermodynamic chips, and not say digital emulation dev kits using FPGAs.
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Related questions
Related questions
A major tech company, besides Anthropic, reports at least 98% of its code is AI-generated before April 1, 2026
16% chance
Will any advanced AI chip fabs or their key supply chains be heavily physically damaged deliberately by 2028?
25% chance
US export restrictions lead to reported large-scale AI chip theft by end of 2026
52% chance
At end of 2025, one of the top five software engineering AIs will be exclusively used by 100 or fewer tech companies
26% chance
Will Extropic AI demonstrate a working thermo-chip by 2050?
68% chance
Will Anthropic announce one of their AI systems is ASL-3 before the end of 2025?
89% chance
When will Extropic AI ship a product?
Will Anthropic announce one of their AI systems is ASL-4 or higher before the end of 2025?
7% chance
US bans TSMC from selling advanced AI chips to all Chinese companies in 2025?
53% chance
Will an AI system be known to have resisted shutdown before the end of 2025?
9% chance