Will Yekaterina Duntsova be the head of Russia before EOY 2030?
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A presidential election is planned in Russia for 15-17 March 2024.

Yekaterina Duntsova intends to run for president. She openly opposes the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Elections in Russia aren't free and fair. Opposition to the invasion is repressed.

I will resolve YES if Duntsova holds the position that, at the time, is the position of the head of state (like the president currently). If the position of the head of state shifts to someone else (like the prime minister), I'll resolve accordingly.

If Russia ceases to exist and Duntsova has not ever been head of state by then, I will resolve NO.

🇺🇦🇷🇺 Ukraine-Russia war🇷🇺 RussiaUkrainePutin Succession2024 Russia elections
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Observation: it's normal to me that a market on Russian events includes proviso "if Russia ceases to exist." The Achilles' heel of many Americans is our unfamiliarity with that framing, that things as they are now may cease to exist, that the past doesn't always predict the future.

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sad, but no

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