Will the room-temperature superconductor results of Lee et. al be reproduced by the end of 2024? | Manifold

Will the room-temperature superconductor results of Lee et. al be reproduced by the end of 2024?

155

Ṁ500k

Jan 2

5%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

See https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008.

Resolves "yes" if reproduced by independent researchers unaffiliated with the authors of this paper and published in a reputable peer-reviewed journal before the start of 2025 UTC.

The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor

For the first time in the world, we succeeded in synthesizing the room-temperature superconductor ($T_c \ge 400$ K, 127$^\circ$C) working at ambient pressure with a modified lead-apatite (LK-99) structure. The superconductivity of LK-99 is proved with the Critical temperature ($T_c$), Zero-resistivi…

Science superconductivity LK-99

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

Sort by:

predicts YES

https://arxiv.org/abs/2308.01516

It's going to replicate. I was here.

What happens to this market if a replication study is published that fails to reproduce this effect? Would we still wait until the end of 2024?

@ParthKolekar I don't see how this market could resolve early unless the original publishers admit new facts or withdraw it

Related questions

Will we have a superconductor at room-temperature and pressure by end of 2030?

-3% 1d12% chance

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2033?

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2036?

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2037?

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2038?

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2040?

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2039?

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2100?

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2035?

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2034?

Related questions

Will we have a superconductor at room-temperature and pressure by end of 2030?

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2040?

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2033?

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2039?

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2036?

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2100?

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2037?

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2035?

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2038?

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2034?