How Many Units Will Apple’s Vision Pro Headset Sell In The First Year?
Mini
16
Ṁ1425
2025
360k
expected

"Bank of America expects Apple to sell 1.5 million units of the Vision Pro in its first year, while Wedbush expects first-year sales of only 150,000 units" [1]

"KGI Securities analyst Christine Wang said she expected shipments of 200,000 in the first year, while Credit Suisse predicted Apple could ship over 1 million units in the period." [2]

[1] https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/apple-vision-pro-wall-street-reaction-virtual-reality-device-3499-2023-6?op=1

[2]

https://www.reuters.com/technology/apples-vision-pro-an-impressive-headset-with-few-likely-buyers-analysts-say-2023-06-06/

Apple’s Vision Pro an impressive headset with few likely buyers, analysts say
Analysts lauded Apple’s Vision Pro on Tuesday for its impressive technology, but warned that it will be a few years before the $3,499 augmented reality headset sees widespread adoption.
️ TechnologyEconomicsScienceAppleApple Vision ProVirtual Reality
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I created this market to track the Vision Pro sales on a more granular level

Related markets / potential arbitrage opportunities:

150K headsets sold in 2024: https://manifold.markets/JacksonWagner/will-apple-sell-more-than-150k-visi
285K: https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-vision-pro-and-other-apple-hea-fee5899b9ba1

50th percentile estimate, currently 320K: https://manifold.markets/whalelang/how-many-units-will-apples-vision-p ...markets with thresholds below this 50th percentile estimate (150K and 285K) should IMO be above 50%; markets with higher thresholds (500K+) should be lower than 50%, or else this market (currently 320K) should move a lot.

500K: https://manifold.markets/ian/will-apple-sell-more-than-500k-mr-h
575K: https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-vision-pro-and-other-apple-hea
750K: https://manifold.markets/ian/will-apple-sell-more-than-750k-mr-h
850K: https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-vision-pro-and-other-apple-hea-ecd06df8baab
1,400K: https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-vision-pro-and-other-apple-hea-6ba0eda02079

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