Chiefs beat Cowboys (11/27) 4:30 PM (CBS)

Bengals beat Ravens (11/27) 8:20 PM (NBC)

Bears beat Eagles (11/28) 3:00 PM (Prime Video)

Jaguars beat Titans (11/30) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Cardinals beat Buccaneers (11/30) 1:00 PM (FOX)

Saints beat Dolphins (11/30) 1:00 PM (FOX)

Vikings beat Seahawks (11/30) 4:05 PM (FOX)

Bills beat Steelers (11/30) 4:25 PM (CBS)

Raiders beat Chargers (11/30) 4:25 PM (CBS)

Broncos beat Commanders (11/30) 8:20 PM (NBC)

Giants beat Patriots (12/01) 8:15 PM (ESPN)

Get ready for an exhilarating season of football!

 (⭐4.96) for lightning-fast market resolutions and surprise market liquidity boosts all year long. Don't miss out—join the excitement today!

Who will get more Points in the 2025 Formula 1 Season?

Verstappen 400 Points - 300 Points Lawson resolves Yes

Verstappen 300 Points - 400 Points Lawson resolves No

Verstappen 350 Points - 350 Points Lawson resolves N/A

Wednesday 11/26, 10:00 PM: (HOU) Rockets WIN at (GS) Warriors 

Tuesday 10/22, 7:30 PM: (NY) Knicks WIN at (BOS) Celtics

Tuesday 10/22, 10:00 PM: (MIN) Timberwolves WIN at (LA) Lakers

Wednesday 10/23, 7:00 PM: (IND) Pacers WIN at (DET) Pistons

Wednesday 10/23, 7:30 PM: (BKN) Nets WIN at (ATL) Hawks

Wednesday 10/23, 7:30 PM: (ORL) Magic WIN at (MIA) Heat

Wednesday 10/23, 7:30 PM: (MIL) Bucks WIN at (PHI) 76ers

Wednesday 10/23, 7:30 PM: (CLE) Cavaliers WIN at (TOR) Raptors

Wednesday 10/23, 8:00 PM: (CHA) Bobcats WIN at (HOU) Rockets

Wednesday 10/23, 8:00 PM: (CHI) Bulls WIN at (NO) Pelicans

Wednesday 10/23, 9:00 PM: (MEM) Grizzlies WIN at (UTAH) Jazz

Wednesday 10/23, 10:00 PM: (PHX) Suns WIN at (LAC) Clippers

Wednesday 10/23, 10:00 PM: (GS) Warriors WIN at (POR) Trailblazers

Thursday 10/24, 7:00 PM: (BOS) Celtics WIN at (WSH) Wizards

Thursday 10/24, 7:30 PM: (SA) Spurs WIN at (DAL) Mavericks

Thursday 10/24, 10:00 PM: (OKC) Thunder WIN at (DEN) Nuggets

Thursday 10/24, 10:00 PM: (MIN) Timberwolves WIN at (SAC) Kings

Friday 10/25, 7:00 PM: (BKN) Nets WIN at (ORL) Magic

Friday 10/25, 7:00 PM: (PHI) 76ers WIN at (TOR) Raptors 

Friday 10/25, 7:30 PM: (CHA) Hornets WIN at (ATL) Hawks

Friday 10/25, 7:30 PM: (DET) Pistons WIN at (CLE) Cavaliers

Friday 10/25, 7:30 PM: (IND) Pacers WIN at (NY) Knicks

Friday 10/25, 8:00 PM: (MEM) Grizzlies WIN at (HOU) Rockets

Friday 10/25, 8:00 PM: (CHI) Bulls WIN at (MIL) Bucks

Friday 10/25, 9:30 PM: (GS) Warriors WIN at (UTAH) Jazz

Friday 10/25, 10:00 PM: (PHX) Suns WIN at (LA) Lakers

Friday 10/25, 10:00 PM: (NO) Pelicans WIN at (POR) Trail Blazers

Saturday 10/26, 5:00 PM: (LA) Clippers WIN at (DEN) Nuggets

Saturday 10/26, 7:00 PM: (MIA) Heat WIN at (CHA) Hornets

Saturday 10/26, 7:00 PM: (BOS) Celtics WIN at (DET) Pistons

Saturday 10/26, 7:00 PM: (CLE) Cavaliers WIN at (WSH) Wizards

Saturday 10/26, 8:00 PM: (OKC) Thunder WIN at (CHI) Bulls

Saturday 10/26, 8:00 PM: (ORL) Magic WIN at (MEM) Grizzlies

Saturday 10/26, 8:00 PM: (TOR) Raptors WIN at (MIN) Timberwolves

Saturday 10/26, 8:30 PM: (HOU) Rockets WIN at (SA) Spurs 

Saturday 10/26, 10:00 PM: (DAL) Mavericks WIN at (PHX) Suns

Saturday 10/26, 10:30 PM: (SAC) Kings WIN at (LA) Lakers

Sunday 10/27, 3:30 PM: (PHI) 76ers WIN at (IND) Pacers

Sunday 10/27, 6:00 PM: (MIL) Bucks WIN at (BKN) Nets

Sunday 10/27, 6:00 PM: (NO) Pelicans WIN at (POR) Trail Blazers

Sunday 10/27, 7:00 PM: (ATL) Hawks WIN at (OKC) Thunder

Sunday 10/27, 8:30 PM: (LA) Clippers WIN at (GS) Warriors

Monday 10/28, 7:00 PM: (IND) Pacers WIN at (ORL) Magic

Monday 10/28, 7:30 PM: (WSH) Wizards WIN at (ATL) Hawks

Monday 10/28, 7:30 PM: (MIL) Bucks WIN at (BOS) Celtics

Monday 10/28, 7:30 PM: (DET) Pistons WIN at (MIA) Heat

Monday 10/28, 7:30 PM: (CLE) Cavaliers WIN at (NY) Knicks

Monday 10/28, 7:30 PM: (DEN) Nuggets WIN at (TOR) Raptors

Monday 10/28, 8:00 PM: (CHI) Bulls WIN at (MEM) Grizzlies 

Monday 10/28, 8:00 PM: (HOU) Rockets WIN at (SA) Spurs

Monday 10/28, 8:30 PM: (UTAH) Jazz WIN at (DAL) Mavericks  

Monday 10/28, 10:00 PM: (LA) Lakers WIN at (PHX) Suns

Monday 10/28, 10:00 PM: (POR) Trail Blazers WIN at (SAC) Kings 

Tuesday 10/29, 7:30 PM: (DEN) Nuggets WIN at (BKN) Nets

Tuesday 10/29, 7:30 PM: (DAL) Mavericks WIN at (MIN) Timberwolves

Tuesday 10/29, 9:00 PM: (SAC) Kings WIN at (UTAH) Jazz

Tuesday 10/29, 10:00 PM: (NO) Pelicans WIN at (GS) Warriors

Wednesday 10/30, 7:00 PM: (TOR) Raptors WIN at (CHA) Hornets

Wednesday 10/30, 7:00 PM: (LA) Lakers WIN at (CLE) Cavaliers

Wednesday 10/30, 7:00 PM: (BOS) Celtics WIN at (IND) Pacers

Wednesday 10/30, 7:00 PM: (DET) Pistons WIN at (PHI) 76ers

Wednesday 10/30, 7:00 PM: (ATL) Hawks WIN at (WSH) Wizards

Wednesday 10/30, 7:30 PM: (NY) Knicks WIN at (MIA) Heat

Wednesday 10/30, 8:00 PM: (ORL) Magic WIN at (CHI) Bulls

Wednesday 10/30, 8:00 PM: (BKN) Nets WIN at (MEM) Grizzlies

Wednesday 10/30, 9:30 PM: (SA) Spurs WIN at (OKC) Thunder

Wednesday 10/30, 10:00 PM: (NO) WIN at (GS) Warriors

Wednesday 10/30, 10:30 PM: (POR) Trail Blazers WIN at (LAC) Clippers

Thursday 10/31, 8:00 PM: (MIL) Bucks WIN at (MEM) Grizzlies 

Thursday 10/31, 8:30 PM: (HOU) Rockets WIN at (DAL) Mavericks

Thursday 10/31, 9:00 PM: (SA) Spurs WIN at (UTAH) Jazz

Thursday 10/31, 10:30 PM: (PHX) Suns WIN at (LAC) Clippers

Friday 11/1, 7:00 PM: (BOS) Celtics WIN at (CHA) Hornets

Friday 11/1, 7:00 PM: (ORL) Magic WIN at (CLE) Cavaliers 

Friday 11/1, 7:00 PM: (NY) Knicks WIN at (DET) Pistons

Friday 11/1, 7:30 PM: (SAC) Kings WIN at (ATL) Hawks

Friday 11/1, 7:30 PM: (CHI) Bulls WIN at (BKN) Nets

Friday 11/1, 7:30 PM: (LAL) Lakers at (TOR) Raptors

Friday 11/1, 8:00 PM: (IND) Pacers WIN at (NO) Pelicans 

Friday 11/1, 9:30 PM: (DEN) Nuggets WIN at (MIN) Timberwolves

Friday 11/1, 10:00 PM: (OKC) Thunder WIN at (POR) Trail Blazers 

Saturday 11/2, 7:30 PM: (MEM) Grizzlies WIN at (PHI) 76ers

Saturday 11/2, 6:00 PM: (BOS) Celtics WIN at (CHA) Hornets

Saturday 11/2, 7:30 PM: (SAC) Kings WIN at (TOR) Raptors 

Saturday 11/2, 8:00 PM: (GS) Warriors WIN at (HOU) Rockets

Saturday 11/2, 8:00 PM: (CLE) Cavaliers WIN at (MIL) Bucks

Saturday 11/2, 8:00 PM: (MIN) Timberwolves WIN at (SA) Spurs 

Saturday 11/2, 9:30 PM: (MIA) Heat WIN at (WSH) Wizards

Saturday 11/2, 10:00 PM: (UTAH) Jazz WIN at (DEN) Nuggets

Saturday 11/2, 10:00 PM: (POR) Trail Blazers WIN at (PHX) Suns

Saturday 11/2, 10:30 PM: (OKC) Thunder WIN at (LAC) Clippers

Sunday 11/3, 3:30 PM: (DET) Pistons WIN at (BKN) Nets

Sunday 11/3, 7:00 PM:(ATL) Hawks WIN at (NO) Pelicans

Sunday 11/3, 7:30 PM: (ORL) Magic WIN at (DAL) Mavericks

Monday 11/4, 7:00 PM: (MIL) Bucks WIN at (CLE) Cavaliers 

Monday 11/4, 7:15 PM: (GS) Warriors WIN at (WSH) Wizards

Monday 11/4, 7:30 PM: (LAL) Lakers WIN at (DET) Pistons 

Monday 11/4, 7:45 PM: (BOS) Celtics WIN at (ATL) Hawks

Monday 11/4, 8:00 PM: (MEM) Grizzlies WIN at (BKN) Nets

Have fun and remember to trade responsibly.

https://manifold.markets/embed/ReeMARKable/nba-basketball-regular-season-win-t?qr

Which team will win the 2025-2026 league title, concluding in May 2026?

EG "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.

 by METR, for the first Claude 4.5 Opus thinking model to appear on METR's graph.

Left bounds inclusive, right bounds exclusive.

Time horizon could vary based on the set of tasks used to measure it, so this market will be based on the time horizon for the most comprehensive set of tasks reported by METR (as of 2025, largely software and engineering tasks). This will be ambiguous if METR stops publishing time horizons across all of their autonomy tasks and only publishes separate results for different subsets; I might N/A in that scenario.

Note the resolution criteria—what matters is the change in the count of federal employees, not whether we can confirm Trump and/or Elon directly fired them. For reference, the specific chart Kalshi links to appears to be 

 within a month of the first Gemini 3 announcement.

Resolves to all correct answers. Either the payload or the uppermost stage must be reported to reach orbit*.

Feel free to suggest additions; I will add them, but there should be at least some question about whether or not a launch will happen in 2024 (am more happy to entertain speculation on the unlikely to launch end)

Has ever been diagnosed with a mental health condition

Had the firearm used in the crime legally

Was intoxicated at the time of the shooting

Is cited by Trump administration as a reason for deploying more troops to any city by 12/31/2025

Registered as a Democrat or voted in a Democratic primary

Each market will resolve as information becomes available - not after conviction, unless otherwise specified.

I will resolve this based on some combination of how much it gets talked about in elections, how much money goes to interest groups on both topics, and how much of the "political conversation" seems to be about either.

Guilty (of at least one crime) by jury verdict

Not guilty (on all counts) by jury verdict

Close date may be extended as long as the outcome is unclear. 

This market will resolve to the outcome that 

 the trial. If some charges are dropped (or a plea bargain is struck), but others go all the way to a jury verdict, this market resolves to jury verdict.

For jury decisions on multiple counts that end the trial, resolves to the valid option listed highest in the description. Guilty if guilty on any counts, otherwise mistrial if mistrial on any counts, otherwise not guilty.

Resolution options are as applied to Donald Trump specifically, although there are many defendants in the case.

Guilty (of at least one crime) by jury verdict:

 A jury declares Trump guilty of at least one crime.

 The trial is declared a mistrial due to a hung jury (jury can't reach a unanimous verdict), procedural error, or misconduct. Resolves regardless of whether the case is retried.

Not guilty (of any crimes) by jury verdict:

Trump agrees to any sort of plea bargain, ending the trial. If there is a plea bargain on some charges, and a jury later rules Trump not guilty on the remaining charges, the market still resolves to "not guilty by jury verdict".

 A judge drops all the charges, ending the trial, or dismisses the case for another reason. Includes the prosecution dropping charges with no plea deal.

If there is an outcome that is not enumerated here, I reserve the right to split resolution or resolve N/A, but I will try my best not to. I will not bet. This market is about the initial lawsuit, not any appeals or retrials.

Market will resolve to YES if 43.1% or higher of Americans approve of Donald Trump's performance dated December 1st, 2025 on Nate Silver's approval tracker located here at Silver Bulletin: 

https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin

https://polymarket.com/event/nothing-ever-happens-november

This market resolves YES if Time magazine names Jeffrey Epstein as Person of the Year for 2025. Resolution will be determined by Time's official announcement, typically made in early December. Check Time's official website at 

Jeffrey Epstein was an American financier and child sex offender who died on August 10, 2019. He died in his jail cell, with the New York City medical examiner ruling his death a suicide by hanging. Time magazine's editors have historically shied away from selecting controversial figures in the United States following public backlash from naming Ayatollah Khomeini Man of the Year in 1979. 

🇺🇸 US Politics

🖥️ Technology

🏟️ Sports

Resolves to the person who wins the majority of votes for US President in the 

, or selected by Congress following the contingency procedure in the 

(May resolve provisionally if both the Associated Press projects a winner and the losing major party candidate concedes; if Manifold allows provisional resolutions.)

Artificial Intelligence (Including ChatGPT or any other variation)

Prediction Markets [including any founder/s or platform/s by name]

This question resolves to the TIME 2025 Person of The Year. It uses consolidated answers to avoid having to predict who the major party nominees will be, or the exact wording of any abstract/group answers. 

If you would like to add a new candidate or consolidated answer to the market, submit them in a comment below. If a comment gets enough support, I'll open the market to submissions so that you can add it and you'll get the unique trader bonuses. 

Note that all consolidated answers must be mutually exclusive, so no more specific or general versions of existing options. The goal is to cleanly divide the probabilistic landscape into non-overlapping categories. 

If multiple options do end up being true, then those options will resolve to an even split of 100%.

THIS WILL PROBABLY RESOLVE EARLIER THAN THE RESOLUTION DATE

The Office of the Australian Information Commissioner (OAIC) publishes reports of Notifiable Data Breaches twice a year at <

https://www.oaic.gov.au/privacy/notifiable-data-breaches/notifiable-data-breaches-publications

>. These could be published up to five months after the period covered in the report.

Australian government agencies and large organisations must report data breaches that meet the criteria at <

https://www.oaic.gov.au/privacy/notifiable-data-breaches/report-a-data-breach

 if the number of reported breaches is 500 or more, 

 if the OAIC does not publish a report for this period.

Gabby's Dollhouse : https://i.scdn.co/image/ab6761610000e5eb20614df23a12d79157222fbd

"Fairy adventure with my dad"   :   https://shorturl.at/9nP0r

The State Flag of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics: https://files.catbox.moe/9960nc.png

Bob holding teddy: https://imgur.com/a/sro75PQ

I have a 6-year-old daughter. At market close, I will put the top 5–15 pictures on one screen and show them to her. I will then ask her to pick her favorite.  If she picks multiple options or cannot decide between them, I will resolve to multiple options with equal weights.

When there are more than 10 answers submitted, I may gradually rule out some low-probability options. These rule-outs are not final: within 24 hours of an option being ruled out, if a trader strongly believes it still has a good chance of winning, they may place a 

 on that option to demonstrate conviction, and I will revive it.

I have not pre-specified how many top-ranked pictures will appear in the final list. 

X will be chosen arbitrarily between 5 and 15

 as a way to deter sniping and whale-baiting.

When submitting an answer, please include a very brief description of the image and a link to it.  Please add an answer yourself (which costs 1000mana).  If you post a picture in the comments, I will consider adding it if it's popular.

I will remove any image that is not appropriate for kids from the answers.

This market resolves YES if Valve themselves confirm half life 3 is in development before January 1st 2026.

Trade on politics & more