https://x.com/AlexHonnold/status/2002807370452509170

A Starting QB gets a likely Season Ending Injury

Game Winning Drive starting in the last 2 Minutes

AFC or NFC Offensive Player of the Week is a Running Back

Player Records at least 2 Interceptions in a Game

Quarterback throws at least 4 Touchdowns in a game

Quarterback gets benched in the middle of a game

For each letter of the alphabet, at least one touchdown is scored by a player that has that letter in their first or last name

Score as time expires in the 4th Quarter/OT

Any team scores 24+ points before halftime

Any player throws for more than 350 yards and loses

A QB has at least 2 turnovers and at least 4 TDs (including passing)

A QB has at least 3 turnovers and at least 3 TDs (including passing)

Highest Scoring Game of the Season (so far)*

A lateral more than a yard past the line of scrimmage (non-last play of the game)

Bird teams finish with a better record than Cat teams (Win %)

At least one missed kicking extra point attempt

A prime number of total missed field goals + extra points

Team change in top 5 Super Bowl favorites from previous Wednesday to Wednesday after the weeks games

2 Point Conversions convert at 50% or higher for the Week

California Teams (Chargers, Rams, 49ers) finish the week with a better record than New York State teams (Bills, Jets, Giants)

A 1pm ET game is still going when a 4:25pm ET game starts

Any player scores 3 TDs in a game (non-passing)

For each game, take the GCD of both teams' scores. Is the result for any game at least 8?

Hip Drop Tackle penalty called during any game

4th and Goal from the 1 (or inches) stopped

3 Missed FGs or Extra Points (from both teams combined) in a Game

The player with the most passing yards wears a prime number

Final score from any game contains two triangular numbers [0, 1, 3, 6, 10, 15, 21, 28, 36, 45, 55,...]

Add your own props! Answers should be able to be resolved by about a Week after this Week's game slate completes!

This market will resolve to "Yes" if ChatGPT reaches 1 billion monthly active users (MAUs) during by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PMET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The primary resolution source will be official information from OpenAI, however a consensus of reputable sources including, major analytics firms (e.g. Similarweb, Sensor Tower), investor or regulatory disclosures, or reputable media may also be used.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2025, at least one sold Tesla vehicle autonomously drives from a Tesla facility directly to the buyer's house.

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1912243208421023763?t=d8-LSblgX1Rv1jTho6LxxA&s=19

Gallup has polls Americans monthly asking them "What do you think is the most important problem facing the country today?"

The list of answers is long and includes "the advancement of computers/technology", which 

The advancement of artificial intelligence may cause respondents to rate technology's advance as more important.

This question resolves YES if Gallup reports that 1% or more of Americans polled assign "the advancement of computers/technology" as the most important problem facing the United States in 

in 2025. Otherwise this question resolves NO on 1 Jan 2026.

Will AI, computers, and technology crack 1% in Gallup's polling before the end of 2025?

Most valuable by either public market cap or private valuation

If there are any spinoffs after this question was created, I will count the combined value including the spinoff companies

Post suggestions for companies to add in the comments

This market evaluates whether OpenAI's models will reach a ≥90% performance on SimpleBench, a benchmark assessing AI's proficiency in fundamental tasks, by the end of 2025. This aligns with CEO Sam Altman's recent prediction that models will saturate benchmarks by the end of 2025. 

Check the benchmark website and leaderboard:

Check the video where AI Explained sent the challenge:

https://youtu.be/tGsBJhMbiIU?si=TtH3c6P72mhxeMn7

https://manifold.markets/HenryGeorge/will-any-model-get-above-human-leve

On an April 2024 episode of Bloomberg ODD LOTS podcast, guest Josh Wolfe tells us that j

ust as ChatGPT opened everyone's eyes to the power of chatbots, a similar moment is coming in the robotics space

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-22/josh-wolfe-the-chatgpt-of-robotics-is-coming?srnd=oddlots

https://youtu.be/qi8F3elM-3U?si=vG4sStOGD8qd7IoS

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Preferred method for resolution will be based on judgement by any of the participants in this discussion (Josh Wolfe, Tracy Alloway or Joe Weisenthal)

This market resolves to "YES" if any of the three publicly assert that we have crossed the equivalent of a "ChatGPT moment" threshold for Robotics.

I'll resolve based on whether there have been advances that capture these main elements of what Josh is predicting

Resolves YES iff the proportion number of days that Trump golfs, from January 20, 2025 to December 31st, 2025 inclusive, is strictly greater than 25% (87 days or more) according to:

Will wait to resolve until it is clear that the site has been updated for every day in 2025. If the site is abandoned or taken down, will resolve NA. H/t 

The market resolves YES if 60 Minutes airs the "Inside CECOT" report by June 30, 2026. Resolution will be confirmed by credible sources, but ultimately I intend to resolve in the spirit of the question.  The title of the report could change, but it must be a full report, not just a brief addendum to other future reporting, or a single clip about CECOT in a different context or episode concerning another subject primarily.

I will not bet in this market to remain objective.

CBS News pulled a "60 Minutes" report on El Salvador's CECOT prison just hours before its scheduled Sunday broadcast on December 21, 2025, saying it would air at a future time. The segment featured accounts of Venezuelan men deported by the Trump administration to a notorious maximum-security prison in El Salvador. The story was screened five times and cleared by both CBS attorneys and Standards and Practices, according to correspondent Alfonsi. CBS News Editor-in-Chief Bari Weiss raised several concerns with producers about the segment and requested a substantial amount of new material to be added, including an interview with White House official Stephen Miller or another senior Trump administration figure.

The correspondent who reported the story, Sharyn Alfonsi, said in an internal memo that "the public will correctly identify this as corporate censorship". Weiss stated the story "did not advance the ball" beyond what other news outlets already had reported, raising questions about whether editorial or political considerations drove the postponement.

Donald Trump has proposed a "Gold Card" program as an alternative to the existing EB-5 investor visa program. The Gold Card would reportedly cost $5 million per card, compared to the current EB-5 program which requires a minimum investment of $800,000 to $1.05 million. Trump has suggested these cards could generate significant revenue, with ambitious claims of potentially selling up to one million cards (which would theoretically generate $5 trillion).

The current EB-5 visa program typically issues fewer than 10,000 visas annually. The Gold Card program would target wealthy foreign nationals seeking expedited paths to U.S. residency.

This market will resolve to the total number of Trump Gold Cards sold during the 2025 calendar year (January 1, 2025 - December 31, 2025).

If the Gold Card program is not implemented or officially launched by the end of 2025, this market will resolve to 0.

If official government data on Gold Card sales is not publicly available, resolution will be based on credible media reports or official statements from the Trump administration regarding the number of cards sold.

This market will resolve as YES if it is confirmed by January 1st 2027 that Donald Trump and Bill Clinton had sex

For the purposes of this market, oral sex counts as sexual intercourse

I will resolve according to the Metaculus resolution:

 if, before January 1, 2026, prescribing mifepristone for medical abortions in the United States becomes either:

Resolves YES if Trump issues any letters of marque against any drug cartels, and NO if he has not done so before market close (i.e. December 25th, 2025). 

For a YES resolution, anything that captures the spirit of what is being described in this 

 where this has been considered for 21st century America. E.g. 

 would have authorized the president to issue letters of marque & reprisal to seize the assets of Russian oligarchs.

🇺🇸 US Politics

🖥️ Technology

🏟️ Sports

Resolves to the person who wins the majority of votes for US President in the 

, or selected by Congress following the contingency procedure in the 

(May resolve provisionally if both the Associated Press projects a winner and the losing major party candidate concedes; if Manifold allows provisional resolutions.)

Any of these colleges if I don't ED2 to Harvey Mudd or UChicago

 White Male, California, competitive private day school

Other Activities: Math Team, Selective Chemistry Summer Program, Newspaper Opinion Editor, Sport, Theater Tech

https://x.com/mhutter42/status/2001857421569032444

Resolves N/A if the bet is called off. (One party not paying out and the other party magnanimously saying "it's ok, I won't hold you to it" does not count as the bet being called off.)

There will be no AI clarifications added to this market's description.

This market is a ranking competition in which human (who is alive as of Dec 14, 2025) are evaluated across three traits: Physical Strength, Intelligence, and Wealth.

While personal preference and subjective judgment cannot be eliminated entirely, I will make a good-faith effort to answer questions and explain how I evaluate each trait and determine relative rankings.  

I anticipate that cross intelligence comparison would be particularly subjective, if you ask me in the comments early on I will try my best to provide my answer to, for example, whether a specific chess world champion, fields medal winner, inventor, or hedge fund manager is considered more intelligent than the other option in my opinion.

that I believe have the strongest prospects of winning.

 will be considered for all trait rankings and overall scoring.

I will make an announcement at least 2 days before the randomize closing period is set.

The market will resolve based on the option that finishes with the 

 under the scoring system described above.

If it is debatable whether certain human exist or is alive or not, I reserve the right to disqualify such option.  

The solution to the puzzle is a sequence of between 4 and 20 letters (the standard 26 letters of the English alphabet, capitalization doesn't matter).

Each user gets one guess per calendar day.  Let's say you're submitting an answer on January 5th, and you wanted to submit "XABDU" as your solution, you would write a comment: "1/5/26: XABDU".  Please do not abuse this system; one guess per day!

I will check the market once per day (don't worry if I forget or skip a day, I'm human and will make up the hints the next day) at a random-ish time, starting on Christmas Eve.  You will get a number of hints based on the following scale:

I think this puzzle will be slightly more challenging than the first round.  On the other hand, you now have at least one puzzle to index off of (though this one will be different), and also have access to an MIT Puzzle Hunt alumnus who solved the first puzzle.  You are more likely to need to collaborate than on the first puzzle, in my opinion. You have the 25 days of Christmas (is this a thing? idk?) to complete the puzzle, by January 17th, 2026 at 11:59pm.

If you guess correctly, I'll immediately resolve the market to YES.  If you guess incorrectly, I'll try to like your comment to indicate it is wrong.

Trade on politics & more