https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_surprise
Only applies to news events between 10/1-10/31. Any events happening outside of that range must resolve No.
@JamesOrr I added this option and intended it to resolve no in this case but it's up to the market creator
@jBosc The weirdest part about this coming out is that it would probably impact voters' perception of Trump, despite there already being so much information out there about how Trump is a serial cheater
Is Florida a swing state, for the purposes of "major hurricane lands in a swing state"? (I assume Georgia and North Carolina are.) Also, does "lands" mean "makes landfall" or "passes through"? @SaviorofPlant
This market needs a lot more rigor. Easily there could be Harris email leaks that most people would be like "that doesnt qualify as an october surprise." It is very likely that 50% of people believe X event was the october surprise and 50% believe nothing qualified to be an october surprise. Unless you can make this more rigorous, maybe something like a nyt article calling it such, anybody betting here is just gambling on the whims of the poster and shouldnt entertain this.
@GregMister I made this market while idly chatting with someone at a bar: suggestions welcome to make it more rigorous. At the moment it's basically "What news in October could impact the campaign" - this is vague
israel invades lebanon? that's the most obvious surprise in october that will change the landscape of the election
@biased I don’t like this option because something will happen in October and then everyone here will be arguing whether or not it is important enough to constant an October surprise. This needs a better resolution policy that defines who decides what is or isn’t (i.e. NYT calls it an October surprise in a not op-ed).
@ProjectVictory “Something else not listed here” means there is a surprise, but (as is the nature of surprises) it isn’t listed as an option.