GPT-5 releases when?
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แน€2984
Dec 31
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expected

This market tests whether month-long buckets work decently for numeric markets. may N/A.

  • Update 2025-06-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If GPT-5 is not released by the time this market closes, it will be resolved to the last bucket.

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bought แน€538 2025.68-2025.76 YES

@Bayesian If it's not released this year, will you resolve to the last bucket?

@TimothyJohnson5c16 i'll first be sad, and then in my sadness i will resolve the last bucket

I think manifold needs to implement a version of these where we can see the months / dates on the x-axis, instead of decimal numbers

@RemNi

If I compute the culmulative function with these questions:

and then take the derivative (or like piecewise approximation of the derivative using buckets), how well does it match the curve in your question? ๐Ÿค”

@RemNi

Think there's a discrepancy

LOL