When will GPT 5 be released? (exact month)
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Plus
132
Ṁ52k
2026
0%
November 2024
0%
December 2024
0%
January 2025
0.1%
February 2025
0.1%
March 2025
0.1%
April 2025
0.1%
May 2025
0.1%
June 2025
0.3%
July 2025
92%
August 2025
5%
September 2025
1.3%
October 2025
0.3%
November 2025
0.1%
December 2025
0.1%
January 2026
0.1%
February 2026
0.1%
March 2026
0.1%
Later than March 2026

ONLY ONE MONTH resolve yes

Regarding naming issues, same resolution criteria as: https://manifold.markets/VictorLJZ/will-gpt5-be-released-before-2025

"If the next OpenAI flagship model deviates from the GPT-N naming scheme and there will clearly be no future model named GPT-5 that is going to be released from OpenAI (e.g. they completely changed the trajectory of their naming scheme) then I will count it as "GPT-5" regardless.

However, if the next flagship model is not called GPT-5 but still conforms to the OpenAI GPT-N naming scheme (e.g. GPT-4.5) or it is implied that there will eventually be a model called GPT-5 that will be released (i.e. they are going to continue with the same naming scheme) then I will not count it as "GPT-5"."

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I think you can resolve the past months? (If this is possible technically)

sold Ṁ3 July 2025 YES

@MaybeNotDepends Unfortunately, that's not possible for dependent multiple choice markets.

What is the time zone of this market?

bought Ṁ150 July 2025 NO

Today's announcement was Agent, no mention of GPT5. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1jn_RpbPbEc

sold Ṁ6 July 2025 YES

Is it possible to resolve months that have past?

@Samaritan no unfortunately not

filled a Ṁ300 May 2025 YES at 60% order
bought Ṁ1 September 2025 YES

How does this resolve if the next openai model is called GPT-Orion or something else entirely?

@ProjectVictory we'll follow the same resolution criteria as this market https://manifold.markets/VictorLJZ/will-gpt5-be-released-before-2025 (description updated) Thanks!

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