Update 2025-07-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a question about how a settlement would be treated, the creator clarified that the intent is to mirror whatever Sentinel was predicting.
Update 2025-07-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated that a clarification on the resolution criteria is due. To resolve ambiguity around outcomes like a settlement, the creator will seek to determine what Sentinel (the source this market is mirroring) intended. If necessary, the creator will ask Sentinel directly on Twitter for this clarification.
All the markets on this:
- https://manifold.markets/GauravYadav/will-anthropic-lose-the-authors-cop
- https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/the-potentially-businessending-anth
- https://manifold.markets/CharlesFoster/will-anthropic-be-ordered-to-pay-1b
- https://manifold.markets/Nu%C3%B1oSempere/will-anthropic-go-bankrupt-or-be-di
@Mactuary The intent is to mirror whatever Sentinel was predicting, I don’t know what would seem most reasonable, hmmmmm
@Bayesian I feel like a settlement here is as likely as not, especially if there's the potential for a company ending award. I think using the value of the settlement is closest to "correct", though on a technicality you might call that not going through a jury trial.
As one piece of weak evidence, the tobacco case, referenced in a retweet, was settled.