Definitions for "release" and "in" can be found at Frequent Market Terms' Recommended Definitions
"new" LLM = Either announced by the company as a new model, is clear from numbering/naming (counts api renaming) it is a distinct model, or able to be selected from some menu as a distinct model.
Example: Gemini 2.5 flash 09-25 would count, for September, as a new GDM release.
LLM = A generative AI model that is able to understand and generate some human language(s)
Update 2025-12-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For models that have both an announcement and a release date: the announcement date determines which month counts for resolution purposes, not the release date.
Example: Gemini 3 Deep Think announced in November counts as a November release for this market, even though it was released in December.
Update 2025-12-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Finetunes of existing models count as new releases if they meet the existing criteria: announced by the company as a new model, clear from numbering/naming it is a distinct model, or able to be selected from some menu as a distinct model.
@Bayesian are finetunes of existing models (may or may not be from the same company) that significantly augment/improve performance considered a new release?
Either announced by the company as a new model, is clear from numbering/naming (counts api renaming) it is a distinct model, or able to be selected from some menu as a distinct model.
I think a finetune would be fine if it meets this criterion, but this criterion is what im basing resolution on
@Bayesian You are saying no for OpenAi but than you say yes for them possible releasing GPT 5.2 sometime this coming week. Why? Also for xAi would Grok 5.2 count?
@MaxLennartson Buy low sell high. Im buying no on openai bc despite thinking they ll release a model, 95% seems high and i can buy no shares for cheap
Going forward, consider adding Apple? They seem to be more active in releasing models these days.
https://x.com/_akhaliq/status/1995899476624458002
@Bayesian resolve on DeepSeek-V3.2 and DeepSeek-V3.2-Speciale
https://huggingface.co/collections/deepseek-ai/deepseek-v32