MANIFOLD
BrowseUS ElectionNewsAbout
Thinking Machines releases an LLM by EOY 2025?
14
Ṁ267
Dec 31
36%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL

Background

Thinking Machines Lab is a new AI company whose CEO is Mira Murati (former CTO of OpenAI).

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Thinking Machines releases to the public an LLM (through an API, through a web interface, or by releasing the model weights) by EOY.

Resolves NO if Thinking Machines does not release an LLM this year.

️ TechnologyAIOpenAITechnical AI TimelinesThinking Machines
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Comments

Related questions

What will be true of OpenAI's best LLM by EOY 2025?
Will a Generative AI (LLM) startup IPO before EOY 2025?
37% chance
Will xAI develop a more capable LLM than GPT-5 by 2026
51% chance
Will the most interesting AI in 2027 be a LLM?
70% chance
What will Manifolders mostly use LLMs for, by EOY 2025?
Will we get a new LLM paradigm by EOY?
32% chance
LLMs by EOY 2025: Will Retentive Learning Surpass Transformers? (Subsidised 400 M$)
10% chance
What will be true of Anthropic's best LLM by EOY 2025?
Which next-gen frontier LLMs will be released before GPT-5? (2025)
Will one of the major LLMs be capable of continual lifelong learning (learning from inference runs) by EOY 2025?
26% chance

Related questions

What will be true of OpenAI's best LLM by EOY 2025?
Will we get a new LLM paradigm by EOY?
32% chance
Will a Generative AI (LLM) startup IPO before EOY 2025?
37% chance
LLMs by EOY 2025: Will Retentive Learning Surpass Transformers? (Subsidised 400 M$)
10% chance
Will xAI develop a more capable LLM than GPT-5 by 2026
51% chance
What will be true of Anthropic's best LLM by EOY 2025?
Will the most interesting AI in 2027 be a LLM?
70% chance
Which next-gen frontier LLMs will be released before GPT-5? (2025)
What will Manifolders mostly use LLMs for, by EOY 2025?
Will one of the major LLMs be capable of continual lifelong learning (learning from inference runs) by EOY 2025?
26% chance
BrowseElectionNewsAbout