Background
Tesla plans to launch its robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, in June 2025, as announced by Elon Musk. This is part of Tesla's broader autonomous vehicle strategy, which relies on its Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology. Austin was selected as the initial launch city partly due to Texas' relatively lenient regulatory framework for autonomous vehicles compared to states like California.
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to YES if Tesla launches a robotaxi service in Austin by the end of June 2025 that:
Is considered at least SAE 4
Allows members of the public to summon and ride in autonomous Tesla vehicles without a safety driver present
Operates as a commercial service (whether paid or free during an initial period)
Functions within at least some parts of Austin city limits
The market will resolve to NO if:
The launch is delayed beyond June 2025
The service launches but requires safety drivers to be present
The service is limited to Tesla employees or a closed testing group rather than being available to the general public
The service is restricted to set routes, ie like a bus line
Tesla cancels or indefinitely postpones the Austin robotaxi plans
Considerations
Several factors could impact the timeline and success of this rollout:
Technical challenges with Tesla's FSD system, which has faced criticism regarding reliability and safety
Regulatory hurdles that might emerge despite Texas' current favorable environment
Public acceptance concerns, as some Austin residents and officials have expressed skepticism about autonomous vehicles following incidents with other operators
Production and supply chain issues that could delay vehicle availability
Tesla has a history of announcing ambitious timelines that are subsequently delayed
Update 2025-04-28 (PST): Remote safety drivers/operators are not permitted. If the service depends on communication or cooperation with a remote driver (i.e., a cooperative system), it does not qualify as SAE 4 and will resolve to NO. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-05-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The determination of whether the service is considered SAE 4 will be influenced by how services like Waymo and Zoox are generally considered by the industry and media.
Update 2025-06-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated they are not persuaded that the resolution criteria are ambiguous. They do not anticipate resolving to N/A based on the ongoing debate, and will instead make a definitive YES/NO determination based on their interpretation of the existing criteria.
A member of the Tesla Autopilot team confirming more invites are being sent and asking people to sign up on the website. https://www.linkedin.com/posts/brandon-goh_robotaxi-tesla-activity-7344016991357198336-QIGf/
@tobiasscheuer It's not a closed test group. Invites are sent to the people in the "Early Access" programme, who are Tesla FSD owners who signed up for beta versions https://x.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1938107382258667797
There is also a public sign-up form https://www.tesla.com/robotaxi
@MarkosGiannopoulos that is a closed testing group rather than "being available to the general public" as the resolution criteria state.
Also your second link is for a newsletter not an invitation
@tobiasscheuer The form states "Be among the first to take an autonomous ride in Model Y. Complete the form below to get updates about when our Robotaxi service is launching near you."
How's that not a waiting list form?
@tobiasscheuer Any FSD user can join the Early Access programme https://www.teslaoracle.com/2025/04/05/tesla-launches-fsd-early-access-program-in-the-us-heres-how-to-join-the-program/
People who get an invite for the Robotaxi service are paying for their rides and can make social media posts (or even live stream it). Hardly a closed testing process.
@MarkosGiannopoulos right above it says big and fat "sign up for updates", not sign up for an invitation
@MarkosGiannopoulos yes, but it is also not open to the general public. FSD users are a small fraction of the population. Please read the resolution criteria
@tobiasscheuer The official description from Tesla in the Q1 update (https://digitalassets.tesla.com/tesla-contents/image/upload/IR/IR/TSLA-Q1-2025-Update.pdf): "We remain on track for pilot launch of Robotaxi in Austin by June". If this market requires something like "any person on the street can hail a ride", then it is simply not what Tesla has announced and is a waste of time.
@MarkosGiannopoulos then you have not read the resolution criteria:
NO if
The service is limited to Tesla employees or a closed testing group rather than being available to the general public
Even a pilot launch could have been open to the public since Tesla restricted other things (like the area) as well. Why the market creator chose these criteria is not up to me or you, I'm just trying to trade this market accurately.
@tobiasscheuer By your definition, the market was set up to fail.
Practically all pilot launches of any platform have some form of a waiting list. Tesla already operates such a programme for new versions of FSD. It's peculiar to expect that some other system would be used.
@MarkosGiannopoulos that's not my definition, but the clear interpretation of the resolution criteria. Noone forced you to participate in this market. I don't know if there's a change history, but as far as I remember the resolution criteria were the same since market creation
@MarkosGiannopoulos you keep posting the link to sign up for promotional emails as if it is a sign up link to be on a waitlist for robotaxi users. It is not.
@BlueDragon it is nice that you chimed in, but this comment does not address the question in this thread. Both parties agree as to what was written in the resolution criteria but they disagree as to what "closed testing group" means; you are the only person who can shed light on this
@lithp my goal is a fair resolution when the time comes, not a hasty adjudication of differently interpreted facts.
I chimed in to clarify that I have not and will not change the resolution criteria, otherwise I would have kept quiet.
One thing we can say for Tesla is that they know the media and their audience. They have gone to great efforts to at least appear to meet every criteria or expectation for a self-driving taxi. Thus you could litigate any of the bullet points above, and make a case for or against. I want to consider those carefully rather than just going with my initial opinion or gut.
@BlueDragon I have now exited the market, as the title "Will Robotaxis roll out in Austin as planned?" does not correspond with the "closed testing group" criteria. The official announcement by Tesla (see link in comment above) was for a "pilot launch", e.g. the service being available to a limited number of non-employees. Just sharing some feedback for future markets.
@MarkosGiannopoulos you spent most of this thread arguing that the program was open to the general public, then pivoted to challenging the resolution criteria when others convinced you that was wrong. In the future if you see an inconsistency between the title and the resolution criteria you should raise it immediately.
Again I have not weighed in on whether this or any of the other market criteria are met, as this is tantamount to resolution. If I were persuaded that the resolution is ambiguous I would resolve NA, in which case you lose mana by cashing out. I’m not persuaded.
Just sharing some facts with you for your future bets on any market.
@BlueDragon Your interpretation of my comments is faulty. I still contend that Tesla's service is available to the general public (through their existing beta testers program and their public sign-up form). I admit to participating in the market without asking many questions to clarify every single word of the criteria. I should have noticed that the title does not fully correspond to the description. Lesson learned. :)
@BlueDragon How do you feel about the launch today? I think based on what you said about safety drivers, it doesn't count?
Forbes, for example, isn't impressed that the safety monitors are sitting in the passenger seat instead of the driver's seat: Tesla Misses Robotaxi Launch Date, Goes With Safety Drivers.
@TimothyJohnson5c16 calling a person in a passenger seat driver doesn't make him a driver.
At most they are rapid response or rescue people. They are clearly do not drive.
The service is generally waymo level on a smaller scale
@Berg Oh the other missing feature is opening up beyond the initial group that was invited, which is probably not going to happen that quickly.
Invites sent to non-employees. Noone on the driver seat but a "safety monitor" on the front right passenger seat. https://x.com/ItsKimJava/status/1935941268741165081