To qualify as a "prominent US politician" for the purposes of this market, a person must:
EITHER hold or have held one of the following offices:
President
Vice President
US Senator
US Representative
US Governor
OR be nominated or have been nominated by the Democrat or Republican parties as candidates for one of the following offices:
President
Vice President
To qualify as "advocat[ing] for banning open-weight AI models" for the purposes of this market, there must be a statement that:
Is directly attributable to the politician in question
Is public, such as in a speech, interview, or social media post
Explicitly calls out "open-weight models", "open-source AI", or some close equivalent
Clearly indicates a desire to ban open-weight models, not just regulate them. Such an indication might involve phrases like:
"Ban"
"Prohibit"
"Shut down"
"Make illegal"
Advocates for the ban as a policy position, not merely as a hypothetical
Was made between September 20, 2024 and March 31, 2026.
I will resolve to YES if, before the end of March 2026, there are 3 separate qualifying individuals who have made qualifying statements, documented on this market. I will resolve to NO at the close of the market otherwise.
Question inspired by these posts:
Does such a call for models beyond a certain compute or capability threshold count?