Did Trump give an order that won't be followed?

Giving an order that can't be followed is a cardinal sin in military strategy. It is the early signs of the downfall from power, mostly due to lack of control over the key people to power. Lose control of them, and you lose the position of power.

I suspect Trump and his devoted followers will spend a lot of political capital to prevent such a bad omen.

I reserve the right to be wrong.

Source: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114738729363742349

Kalshi at 83% by July 2nd at time of comment.

https://kalshi.com/markets/kxrecnc/reconciliation-bill-passes-the-senate#KXRECNC-25

Polymarket at 80% by July 4th at time of comment.

https://polymarket.com/event/reconciliation-bill-passed-by?tid=1751213881074

@Quroe those markets are for "a reconciliation bill" rather than Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill". Is there a difference?

@jessald i know you didn't ask me. But it's the same thing. It's just known as "One Big Beautiful bill" By trump and his supporters. But it's just a budget reconciliation bill. So yes it's the same thing

@DanBow899 I unironically appreciate you beating me to this.

@DanBow899 it's not just his supporters. It's literally the title of the bill

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Big_Beautiful_Bill_Act?wprov=sfla1

https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/1/text

@BenM oh, lol. I didn't even know that, haha. Thank you for letting me know

I'm starting to scoop up the NO shares on Kalshi, hoping that 194 traders here are pointing me in the right direction.

While I can't financially arbitrage Kalshi and Manifold, I can still try to pull their odds closer together. I'll win on one platform or the other.

@Quroe it was looking very likely that the bill would pass the Senate by the 4th not too long ago. But all these road blocks are shifting me towards a no being correct. I feel like it'll be passed in July, but the 4th is a very ambitious deadline currently

@DanBow899 At the very least, the Kalshi market is for the 2nd. I have a prayer to win both markets, still.

@DanBow899 They have been pulling a lot of late night bill shenanigans recently. YES may still be in the cards by the 4th.

I'm starting to think I have missed some sort of technicality. I don't trade on Polymarket. If somebody does, take your free arbitrage if I'm reading these right.

Maybe the Polymarket one requires that it pass both the Senate and the House if there are reworks. That might explain it. Kalshi just looks at the Senate.