What sentence will Merchan initially give Trump for his convictions in the Stormy case?
40
Ṁ6423
Sep 19
10%
Jail (or prison) time, any amount
41%
Probation. 6-12 months
65%
Probation, 12+ months
84%
Fines, punitive

Question resolves when Judge Merchan hands down his initial sentence, currently slated for July 11th; now slated for Sept 18th [1]. The sentence is what is written in the order.

Any subsequent event (appeals, sentence enhancements, contempt sentences, actually serving the sentence or not, going on the lam, etc) is irrelevant.

[1] https://x.com/kaitlancollins/status/1808213730678772211

Trial of the CenturyTrump indictment(s)
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House arrest isn't listed here, and that's one of the most likely outcomes.

@SteveSokolowski I didn’t attempt to list all possible outcomes, was thinking it would be better to allow others to add as they arise.

So feel free to add the option, if you do I’ll spend some mana on it.

@DanBron others can't add options. Can you?

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