Yes = If the campaign has any sessions (>1hr) with the DM and at least 2 players in 2025. I don't expect much ambiguity here.
THE CONTEXT
Party Members: Warlock, Rogue, Artificer, Paladin, Ranger, Cleric
In my opinion, 5.5/7 people involved are very conflict avoidant, but most people would consider me blunt or too direct. I consider myself not honest enough.
DM's 1st time DMing, all 1st time players.
Prep time invested before session 0 (very rough estimate):
DM - 2 months
Warlock, Rogue - 1.5 months
Artificer - 3 weeks
Paladin - 2 weeks
Ranger - 1 week
Cleric - 2 days
THE TIMELINE
Session 0: Cleric initially wants to have 1 hr sessions every other week, refuses to make time on weekends (watches TV, I think), but agrees to 2hr every Thursday. Scrolling phone during combat explanation, etc.
3 days later: DM relays negative feedback from party members that Cleric doesn't seem invested. Cleric calls Uber, quits the campaign, and slams the apartment door on the way out. Ranger, who is dating Cleric, says they want to stay in.
2 days later: Ranger drops out. Refuses to discuss it with anyone. Too scared to meet in person to talk it over until several weeks have passed (presumably to let Cleric cool down).
Session 1: Doesn't happen on the scheduled date. Cleric & Ranger have dropped, Artificer accidentally doubled booked, the rest have sad dinner together.
In the course of negotiations with Ranger, DM repeatedly states we are being too combative. We text Ranger anyway and get the commitment to talk everything over in person in a couple of weeks. We consider this a win and relay the victory to DM, who wanted to wait a week before sending a "toned down" request to talk. DM hasn't responded for 36 hrs so far.
Update 10/14/24:
DM was on a club retreat. Responded that Ranger reacted better than expected. This makes me hopeful for Session 1. Still not confident about conflict resolution going forward.
Update 11/3/24:
We've completed weekly sessions 1, 2, and 3 (~5hrs each). I feel resentment towards players as I've gotten to know them more, but I don't expect it or anyone else to boil over into anything campaign ending.
I'm interested in base rates of DnD induced friend group annihilation and what people consider to be the relevant variables.
Willing to answer followups and append them here.
@OP Yes. The DM + any 2 players from the pool of starting players (I don't have to be involved) must meet for >1hr in 2025 to play the campaign to Resolve Yes. DM hasn't prepped multiple campaigns, none of the players are experienced enough to sub as DM or dedicated enough find a new DM, I don't expect there to be ambiguous "sessions" where we talk about school for 90min and play DnD for 30min sprinkled in between. Maybe there are resolution complications I haven't thought of, but this should be simple to resolve. If not, I will describe the situation and call for votes.