https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/what-is-man-that-thou-art-mindful possibly should resolve given the latest ACX post?

What Is Man, That Thou Are Mindful Of Him?

...

@Lorenzo it was God all along!

This is a market about a year-old tweet about an interview to be posted in the coming months. End this nightmare of a market!

@FrederickNorris we don't know the answer yet

@AndrewHebb If we don't know it now, we never will.

@FrederickNorris what odds would you bet on that? ("we will learn the identity of this guest within e.g. 2 years")

@Ziddletwix The odds this guy says, oh yeah, you know that twt I made last year, and nothing ever came of it, I was talking about Person X? Minimal. It makes all of his guests since then seem less important, and underscores that "big guests" back out on him. Zero reason for him to dredge this up.

@FrederickNorris that's one scenario for how we learn the identity—several people (e.g. SG below) say they know the identity, but for obvious reasons won't divulge atm. it seems very far from certain to me that that wouldn't get revealed in the next ~2y

@Ziddletwix but people didn’t bet on this thinking their mana would be held up for two years. Because those who know won’t say, even if (allegedly) they know, then for all intents and purposes we won’t know. So let’s put an end to this. Otherwise we’re just waiting for people who said they wouldn’t tell us to tell us.

@FrederickNorris

@FrederickNorris You can make some mana here: https://manifold.markets/Lorenzo/will-the-who-is-dwarkeshs-upcoming

@Ziddletwix The people who knew all along, but were asked not to disclose, are going to be released from their vow why?

Maybe it was supposed to be Pope Francis. The pope's illness started this year in February; the timeline kind of works.

@miklosme maybe it's Pope LEO!?

@bens

@Paradoxicorn heads up that he’s already been on the show twice

Did no one ask him at Manifest? Lol

@bens He wasn't at Manifest this year 😢 .

I guess now might be an amusing time to reveal that I've known who the guest was all along and that Dwarkesh asked me not to say...

@SG uhhh... did that request have a statute of limitations?

@SG well that’s annoying

@SG secret because it might still happen soon?

@SG wait, you claim to know yet have bet up multiple options?

@TheAllMemeingEye ...if he's not meant to tell, why would he bet on the only true option?

Dwarkesh could do the funniest thing right now

Why is MrBeast so high, even if there is insider info that he was going to come on the show? MrBeast could be considered bigger than Mark Zuckerberg in some ways, but the phrasing 'biggest guest by far' implies a kind of unambiguous dominance that I don't think holds

@galaga he's probably biggest-by-far in terms of advertisement interest, idk

@galaga i do not think "unambiguous dominance" applies to almost anyone on the list? that's an unreasonable bar, given the context is just "Dwarkesh hyping up a guest to advertisers", some hyperbole is acceptable.

mr beast imo has a fairly strong case because he is reasonably distinct from other options. musk (let alone bezos/gates) is very big, but there is a pretty natural comparison between him & zuckerberg. there isn't another guest that is remotely similar to mr beast (& as jim says, he is an obvious draw for advertisers, arguably moreso than the tech ceos)

@Ziddletwix these are good points, though I would argue that Musk and Gates dominate his previous guests by being in the same vertical but higher, whereas MrBeast is somewhat not comparable

Plus if the take is about advertising revenue from the increased viewer draw, unclear what Dwarkesh can advertise to MrBeast type viewers that MrBeast has not captured himself

@Ziddletwix I think Obama would be pretty unambiguously the biggest guest

@dominic I’d agree with that, although I believe earlier some brits bristled at the idea because of tony Blair