For context, see this tweet.
Within the next few months, I'm going to be releasing an episode with by far my biggest guest yet.
If you're interesting in sponsoring it, shoot me an email at sponsor@dwarkeshpatel.com
Resolution
Once that market resolves, I will close this one and run a poll for one week, using the [NAME] that it resolved to.
The phrasing will be something along the lines of "Do you agree that [NAME] is 'by far the biggest guest yet' on Dwarkesh's podcast?", with options "Agree" and "Disagree".
If "Agree" has the majority of votes, this market resolves YES.
Since I think this might end up having a hard time resolving (either due to disagreement, or it just doesn't materialize for one reason or another) in ways not covered by this market, I created the below market:
/HenriThunberg/will-there-be-consensus-on-who-dwar
For me personally, if the guest is Obama, Trump, Kamala, TSwift, or GPT-5, it's a clear "Agree", and for just about ~all the other listed options it's an easy "Disagree" (e.g. Musk is not "by far bigger" than Zuck, they're in the same tier by just about any "bigness" metric).
Of course, this will resolve based on a poll, & Manifold users can & will feel free to disagree.
I suggest resolving to poll percentage instead of binary YES / NO with a 50% cutoff, primarily because I personally find discontinuous functions unaesthetic.
Very fair! Yes, you should make markets the way you like, not the way I like.