Before 1 January 2025 (Pacific time), a user must convert a balance of "sweepcash" (not some other direct, non-prize point credit like partner bonuses) into $100,000.00 (USD) or more. By "sweepcash", I mean whatever name is given to the currency earned from market resolutions that can be converted to cash. (If other sources can also supply this currency, those also count -- the key is that the market resolution currency is used to generate the money.)
They can post their proof in this market, or someone can provide proof of the event to resolve this yes.
The $100,000 can be withdrawn in multiple separate events or all at once. The redemption must have been initiated before the specified time (1 January 2025 Pacific time) and arrive in the user's bank account within 7 days.
Resolves No if no proof has been shown in the comment section of this market before the specified date. I may or may not attempt to seek out this proof. If Manifold databases are accessible and can show that someone withdrew $100,000, or Manifold staff confirm it, that will be sufficient to resolve Yes.
Note: If there is a fee applied to withdrawals such that withdrawing an amount of sweepcash nominally worth $100,000 results in a slightly lower amount of currency in the user's bank account at the end of the transaction, the key factor is the amount of money the end user actually takes out. Someone withdrawing "$100,000 worth" of sweepcash but getting $97,500 in their bank account would need to get $2,500 more into their bank account in order for this to resolve Yes. If some amount is withheld by a taxing authority or other mechanism, but Manifold actually paid out the nominal $100,000 amount, this still resolves Yes.
Anyone on the Manifold staff or otherwise on the Manifold payroll (full or part time), and anyone who is an 'investor' in Manifold-the-company or has some special relationship with them (family, etc.), who reports withdrawing $100,000, will NOT resolve this market Yes unless they can sufficiently prove that they had no special treatment and any regular user could have done the same thing. If it appears any special treatment was given to the user, I don't want to count it.
Resolves Yes promptly upon receipt of proof.
Related:
/mattyb/the-pivot-will-manifold-ever-give-a
@ScottWolchok That's a good clarification request. I had thought about it a few months ago when I made the $1,000 version of this question and decided it was unlikely to matter for that one, but forgot to consider it here with the larger amount. There's nothing special about the $100,000 amount here other than it means "people are betting larger sums"....
When I originally considered this question, I intended to count whatever Manifold pays out, but not what they keep in fees, etc. So the intent was if Manifold takes 5% of your "$100" withdrawal, it would count as $95 here. What the government does with the other $95 is up to them. I will try to re-word the description to match this.
So in answer to your question: That would still resolve Yes.