What will be the popular vote margin between the top two candidates in the 2024 US presidential election?
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Plus
22
Ṁ3256
Dec 1
4%
<1,000,000
14%
Between 1,000,000 and 2,000,000
76%
Between 2,000,000 and 5,000,000
5%
Between 5,000,000 and 10,000,000
0.5%
>10,000,000

Update (11/7): extending market close. Current tally of popular vote difference is 4.65 million. Note (12/20/23): Results of this market have been interesting to me so far. I’m encouraging traders, if they are so inclined, to leave comments about the their thinking process.

️ Politics🇺🇸 US PoliticsTrump🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential ElectionJoe Biden
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bought Ṁ50 Between 1,000,000 an... YES

NYTimes is forecasting Trump +1.2. If there are around 150 million or so total votes, the margin would be 1.8 million.

Is this about the absolute size of the margin or can it go negative? E.g., if the winner has 1.5 million fewer votes than the loser, does that count as <1M or as between 1M and 2M?

@StevenK It would count as between 1 and 2 mil. Market is solely concerned with the difference between the two top popular vote tallies, independent of who wins the election.

typo, 5000 shouldn't be 5000

@asmith Thanks, fixed.

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