How will the 2024 election popular vote compare to the polls? (2-party, 538)
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แน€19k
Dec 2
0.9%
D +3.0 or more
1%
D +2.0 to +2.9
1%
D +1.0 to +1.9
1.3%
D +0.3 to +0.9
1.4%
R +0.2 to D +0.2
1.3%
R +0.3 to +0.9
1.4%
R +1.0 to +1.9
85%
R +2.0 to +2.9
7%
R +3.0 or more

This resolves to the answer that encompasses the difference between the actual 2-party popular vote result, vs. the 538 polling average as of Monday Nov 4, 2024.

Actual vote totals will be taken once those are officially available and certified, after recounts and challenges. Vote totals will be rounded to the nearest 0.1% of the two-party vote (rounding to even). All options are shown to 0.1% increments and are inclusive.

See also:
/EvanDaniel/how-will-presidential-polls-538-shi

/SemioticRivalry/which-candidate-will-outperform-the

/AaronBailey/will-538-polling-predict-the-correc

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ 2024 US Presidential ElectionElection marginsElectoral CollegeFiveThirtyEight
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bought แน€750 R +2.0 to +2.9 YES

1.2+1.5 = 2.7
1.2+1.75 = 2.95
so polymarket puts R + 2.95 or less at roughtly 88%. probably definitely more than R + 2, so R +2 to +2.9(5 since rounding to nearest 0.1) should be around 88%, and R + 3 to 3.9 should be around 12%

I don't trust this analysis enough to buy it to 88% uh

To clarify, this is popular vote - polling average, such that if the polling underestimates Dems, this resolves to one of the D options?

Correct.

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