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Will Iran acquire a nuclear weapon by end of 2026?
16
Ṁ1553
2026
17%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL

Resolution will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, including reporting on weapons tests (reports that they had the weapon to perform the test are sufficient; they do not need to still be in possession of another one).

See also: /EvanDaniel/will-iran-acquire-a-nuclear-weapon

IranMiddle EastNuclear RiskNuclear Weapons
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