Will there be a manifold user who is either a billionaire in USD or billionaire in mana by 2030. This will be measured in 2024 USD so adjust for inflation in 2030. Official manifold accounts will not count. Any profit or balance manipulation will still count for this market even if it is only for a short amount of time.
1000 bucks is 100000 mana.
1 billion mana is equivalent to 10 million dollars.
It's adjusted for inflation so if they keep inflating mana it doesn't matter, basically someone need to own 10 million dollar worth of mana. Seems like an awful lot for a play money site. Even serious prediction markets like polymarket don't have that big users yet.
Actually i'm wrong. 1000 bucks is 1 million mana.
So someone would have to own 1 million dollar worth of mana at some point. If they ever make this site so you can get paid, i could see people invest more into this site. But otherwise it's not going to happen imo. Who would ever put a fortune like that into this site?