Which companies will achieve a higher ELO rating than OpenAI on ChatBot Arena in 2025? ( >= week)
➕
Plus
12
Ṁ3697
Dec 31
46%
Antropic
25%
DeepSeek
20%
Meta
16%
Other
10%
Alibaba
7%
Mistral
7%
NexusFlow
Resolved
YES
Google
Resolved
YES
xAI

For any company to resolve YES, they must achieve a higher ELO rating than OpenAI’s best model on the leaderboards https://lmarena.ai/.

see https://manifold.markets/Soli/which-companies-will-achieve-a-high?play=true for 2024

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Google

@LCBOB resolves YES, xAI too https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/who-will-ever-rank-1-in-lmsys-chatb

@mods please resolve

Style Control enabled or disabled?

it is disabled by default, i think it would be pretty unfair if this was anything other than based on the default viewing

@Bayesian agree, + the correlational statistics is suspicious and seems gameable

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