Who will be the two major party nominees of the 2028 United States Presidential Election? (resolves 50% each)
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155
แน70k2028
1D
1W
1M
ALL
30%
23%
JD Vance (Vice President)
7%
Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania Governor)
7%
Gavin Newsom (California Governor)
4%
Pete Buttigieg (Biden Secretary of Transportation)
4%
Donald J. Trump (45th & 47th President)
3%
Andy Beshear (Kentucky Governor)
3%
Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan Governor)
2%
Donald Trump Jr.
2%
Kamala Harris (Vice President)
1.9%
Tim Walz (Minnesota Governor)
1.8%
Michelle Obama (First Lady)
1.6%
Glenn Youngkin (Virginia Governor)
1.5%
Nikki Haley (South Carolina Governor)
1.3%
Greg Abbot (Texas Governor)
1.1%
Roy Cooper (North Carolina Governor)
1.1%
John Fetterman (Pennsylvania Senator)
1.1%
Mark Kelly (Arizona Senator)
1%
Wes Moore (Maryland Governor)
1%
Mark Cuban
Resolves 50% each to the two people who are the nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties in 2028, at the end of whichever national convention happens second.
Any change in the nominees after the conclusion of the second convention will not effect the resolution of this market.
Additional likely candidates will be added by the house as necessary and will split off from "other". Please leave a comment if you have any suggestions.
See also:
/ManifoldPolitics/who-will-win-the-2028-united-states-a84qq6ejnj
/DylanSlagh/who-will-be-the-democratic-nominee-e7fd97afa9bf
/DylanSlagh/who-will-be-the-republican-nominee-757313dd0344
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Mike Johnson could be the first sitting member of the House to be elected president since Garfield
Since this market resolves at 50% for the democratic nominee, Kamala is way overpriced at 35% (taking the 2024 odds for Kamala she should be priced at 0.5 * 0.53 = 26.5%).
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEightโs performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with Sweepcash (๐) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Sweepcash (๐) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
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