꧁∙·▫ₒₒ▫ᵒᴼᵒ▫ₒₒ▫꧁ MarkMyWords Series ꧂▫ₒₒ▫ᵒᴼᵒ▫ₒₒ▫·∙꧂
https://www.reddit.com/r/MarkMyWords/comments/1epe67x/mmw_if_djt_loses_the_2024_election_he_will/
Resolution Criteria:
The market will resolve as "Yes" if:
Donald Trump loses the 2024 U.S. Presidential election AND
Trump leaves the United States and takes up residence in a country without an extradition treaty with the U.S. by December 31, 2025
His residence in that country is confirmed by credible news sources or official statements
The market will resolve as "No" if:
Trump wins the 2024 U.S. Presidential election OR
Trump loses the election but remains in the U.S. through December 31, 2025 OR
Trump leaves the U.S. but resides in a country with an extradition treaty
The market will resolve as "Invalid" if:
The 2024 U.S. Presidential election results are not officially certified by December 31, 2024
Trump passes away before December 31, 2025
Resolution Sources:
Official U.S. election results
Reputable international news organizations
Official statements from foreign governments or U.S. authorities
Closing Date:
This market will close for trading on December 31, 2025, or when credible evidence of Trump's residence in a non-extradition country is confirmed, whichever comes first.Additional Notes:
"Country without a U.S. extradition treaty" refers to nations that do not have a formal agreement with the United States for the extradition of individuals facing criminal charges
Temporary travel or short-term stays in foreign countries do not qualify as "taking up residence"
The specific country of residence is not relevant to the resolution, only that it lacks an extradition treaty with the U.S.
Given the resolution criteria, why isn't the title "Will Trump lose the election and flee to a country without a U.S. extradition treaty by Dec. 2025?"?
I'm new here so I might be saying something stupid, but it seems to me that if what you want to measure is the conditional probability of Trump fleeing given that he loses, then it should resolve to invalid, and not to "No", if he wins.