SpaceX Starship Orbit in 2023? (No) → SpaceX Mars Mission by 2030?
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The metaculus page is now a 404. I presume this now follows https://www.metaculus.com/questions/737/will-spacex-land-anything-on-mars-by-2030/ ?

@FlorisvanDoorn it’s technically this conditional question, which leads to yours above, so yes. I’ve updated the description to match. Thanks!

May wish to extend the close date to Jan 1st 2030 @MetaculusBot!