How much did the 2025/06/21 U.S. strikes on Iran delay the nuclear weapon program?
4
Ṁ5432027
1D
1W
1M
ALL
77%
>3 months
56%
>6 months
45%
>1 year
35%
>2 years
20%
>5 years
On June 21, 2025, the United States completed air strikes on three nuclear sites in Iran: Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan.
While the US claims the sites were completely destroyed, Iran claims impact was minimal. This question asks: how many more months away from a nuclear weapon is the Islamic Republic?
This question will resolve using estimates produced by international governing bodies, such as the IAEA. These estimates may not be available soon, and the question will extend until a firm estimate is produced by an international agency.
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Sort by:
A leaked DIA assessment estimates the program was only set back "months": https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/24/politics/intel-assessment-us-strikes-iran-nuclear-sites
Related questions
Related questions
Will the U.S. deploy a tactical nuclear weapon against Iran’s nuclear facility before January 2026?
2% chance
US strikes Iran on 2+ separate days in 2025?
40% chance
Iranian strike on U.S. soil in 2025?
19% chance
Will the U.S. strike Iran’s oil or gas infrastructure by August 31, 2025?
44% chance
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?
35% chance
Iran’s 60%+ enriched uranium stockpile and its capability to produce more both eliminated by June 2025 strikes?
11% chance
US bombs Iran in July 2025?
16% chance
US nukes Iran in 2025?
3% chance
Will Iran acquire a nuclear weapon by end of 2025?
8% chance
Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?
8% chance