Resolution

Use OECD Steel Outlook 2025 and its successors:

• Let CAP_2026 be the OECD estimate of world crude steel capacity for 2026.

• YES if CAP_2026 ≥ 2,600 mmt/y, otherwise NO.

Why ~50%?

• OECD puts 2023 capacity at ~2,498.6 mmt, with +165 mmt (6.7%) planned additions 2025-27.

• If most projects go ahead and retirements are modest, 2026 lands around 2.6–2.62 Gt; if cancellations/closures bite harder, it could stay in the 2.5x range.

So 2,600 mmt is basically “do we actually realise most of the pipeline by 2026?”.

Resolution criteria

The market resolves YES if the OECD Steel Outlook 2025 (or its successors) estimates global crude steel capacity for 2026 at ≥2,600 million tonnes per year, otherwise NO. Resolution should reference the OECD's official capacity figure for 2026 from their latest Steel Outlook publication.

Background

Global crude steelmaking capacity reached 2,482 million tonnes in 2024. Substantial increases in steelmaking capacity of up to 6.7% (165 million metric tonnes) are planned worldwide from 2025 to 2027. Asian economies are expected to account for 58% of the new capacity, led by substantial increases in China and India. However, global demand is expected to grow by only 0.7% annually through 2030, with a decline in China, stability in the OECD region, and stronger growth only in certain developing regions such as ASEAN and MENA.

Considerations

The 2,600 mmt threshold represents whether most planned capacity additions materialize by 2026. More than 40% of the 165 mmt of new steelmaking capacity entering the market during 2025-27 is expected to be based on the relatively emission-intensive blast furnace/basic oxygen furnace (BF/BOF) process. Project delays, cancellations, or accelerated closures of older facilities could shift the outcome. China's subsidies (as a share of firm revenues) are 10 times higher than those in OECD countries, encouraging overcapacity and unviable investments, which may affect the viability of some planned projects.