Resolution criteria

China's 2025-2027 action plan aims to increase recycled aluminium production beyond 15 million tonnes by 2027. This market resolves YES if China's recycled aluminium production exceeds 15 million tonnes in calendar year 2027. Resolution will be based on official data from China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) or verified industry reports from Shanghai Metal Market (SMM) or the International Aluminium Institute. The threshold is strictly greater than 15M tonnes; production of exactly 15M tonnes resolves NO.

Background

China's domestic demand for secondary aluminium reached more than twelve million tonnes in 2024, growing at a 12-13 per cent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) between 2020-2025. From around six million tonnes in 2010 to more than fifteen million tonnes in 2023, China has more than doubled its secondary aluminium output in just over a decade. The 15 Mtpa recycled aluminium target is feasible and strategically important. Recycled aluminium will help offset the limitations imposed by the primary aluminium capacity cap.

Considerations

Between 2024 and 2026, planned expansions in secondary aluminium capacity are expected to exceed both current and anticipated scrap supply. Used beverage cans (UBCs) and extrusion scrap are emerging as the tightest supply bottlenecks, with demand growth outstripping collection rates. The distinction between recycled aluminium production (output from remelting facilities) and consumption (demand) is critical—the market resolves on production capacity, not demand.