Resolution notes

• Use World Steel Association (or NBS China if needed) data on Chinese annual crude steel production.

• Let S₍₂₀₂₄₎ be China’s steel output in 2024, S₍₂₀₂₇₎ in 2027.

• If S₍₂₀₂₇₎ ≤ 0.95 × S₍₂₀₂₄₎, resolve YES; else NO.

• Deadline: once 2027 data is final (typically mid‑2028); hard cutoff 31 Dec 2028.

  Resolution criteria

  China produced 1.005 billion metric tonnes of crude steel in 2024. The market resolves YES if China's 2027 annual crude steel production is at or below 954.75 million tonnes (95% of 2024 levels), and NO otherwise.

  Resolution uses World Steel Association monthly production statistics for crude steel or China's National Bureau of Statistics annual data. The 2027 figure will be finalized by mid-2028, with a hard deadline of December 31, 2028 for resolution.

  Data sources: World Steel Association Steel Data Viewer or China National Bureau of Statistics

  Background

  China produced 1.005 billion metric tonnes of crude steel in 2024, accounting for over half of global production. The Chinese government has implemented periodic production adjustment policies targeting energy efficiency and carbon emissions reductions. Some provincial governments have instructed mills to cut annual crude steel production by approximately 5% in 2025, though implementation varies by region and mill type.

  Considerations

  A 5% reduction from 2024 levels would represent a significant decline. Recent monthly data shows volatility—China produced 83.2 Mt in June 2025, down 9.2% on June 2024, while March 2025 production was up 4.6% on March 2024. The outcome depends on sustained policy implementation, domestic demand, export dynamics, and global economic conditions over the next two years.