THIS WILL PROBABLY RESOLVE EARLIER THAN THE RESOLUTION DATE
Resolution sources:
Primary: SAMR official website (samr.gov.cn, quality supervision section)
Secondary: CISA official reports (chinaisa.org.cn)
If multiple reports conflict, SAMR's official report is authoritative. If no report is published by the market close date, the market resolves N/A. Resolution is based purely on the numerical failure percentage reported—no subjective interpretation.
Background
SAMR released a new mandatory national standard for hot-rolled ribbed rebar (GB 1499.2-2024) in June 2024, taking effect September 25, 2024. A 2023 investigation revealed that 22.9% of rebar samples from the market failed to meet the previous standard's requirements for mechanical properties and metallurgical structure. The new regulations shift standards from recommendatory to mandatory and implement stricter requirements on rebar quality.
Considerations
The 2024 standard introduces tighter tolerances than the 2018 version. For example, tolerance for rebar with diameters of 6-12mm is 5.5% in 2024 standards compared with 6% in 2018, and for 14-20mm diameter rebar it is 4.5% compared with 5%. This stricter regulatory environment may influence 2025 failure rates relative to the 2023 baseline of 22.9%.
@TonyBaloney the liquidity provided by the market creator is very high so if you think it's just 2% different from what is shown you get a lot of mana down at a good price.
On a market with 100 mana in the pool, if it's off by 2%, the average trader doesn't think it's worth the time to click to fix it.
I wonder if this is going to be an instance where the market resolves Yes, but only by a little bit, and also production of rebar is down in 2025 so Vanadium's movement is not significantly affected by the regulations even if they are moderately effective.
Just from looking at the situation a little bit, I expect the regulation to have a moderate effect on standards compliance. Not a massive effect, but also not a tiny one.
@Eliza I think this market should be 95% and unless negative, the outcome should not impact any commodities prices.
@Gen If the industry is already struggling with reduced demand, I can't see them being super excited to hit new quality standards at the same time. But going from 22% failure rate to 19% just seems very achievable.
@Eliza I think it's more likely they post <10%, it would be embarassing to be much higher, especially without signalling concern throughout the year. They are only shaming small producers, not the big players, no public concern. The report will be positive, likely uninformative, and everyone will continue on as is.
@MikhailTal do you have any idea what the odds are of no report being published by the market close date?
@Eliza if the real results are >20% failure rate and they don't want to tell a huge lie and publish something 5-10%, it won't be published. This is also why I am so comfortable betting 80k on margin lol
edit: actually I revise this, I should have said <5% not 5-10%.