As of May 2024 polling by GrowSF, this is a tight race between Mayor Breed, Mark Farrell, Aaron Peskin and Daniel Lurie, with Ahsha Safai also as a viable candidate.
https://growsf.org/pulse/growsf-pulse-may-2024-mayor/
The election will take place in November 2024. Mark Farrell is seen as the most conservative / pro business candidate, while Aaron Peskin is seen as representing the more liberal side of the current Board of Supervisors. Mayor Breed is seem as somewhat of a moderate, and the incumbent.
The other candidates are less well known by the public.
Recent polling for Lurie gives him a lot more value than this market, albeit most of the recent polling is paid for by his campaign.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_San_Francisco_mayoral_election#Polling
@Moscow25 Polymarket has him clear third also...
https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-win-san-francisco-mayoral-election/will-mark-farrell-win-the-san-francisco-mayoral-election?tid=1726122281370
Polymarket has Farrell and Breed in a dead heat at 47% each and everyone else far behind.
https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-win-san-francisco-mayoral-election/will-mark-farrell-win-the-san-francisco-mayoral-election?tid=1726122281370
