How many launches will SpaceX successfully send to orbit in 2024?
24
Ṁ4707
Dec 31
5%
<120
28%
120–129
52%
130–139
10%
140–149
3%
150–159
1.6%
≥160

Counts Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, and Starship launches equally. Only full orbit or earth escape trajectory counts, with perigee >150km or apogee >1000km.

SpaceSpacexRockets
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Re "Successfully send to orbit":

Most count July 12 launch of starlink 9-3 as a failure. Payloads sort of did orbit but perigee was too low and they re-entered.

If the criteria here is just that the launch results in rocket reaching some sort of orbit, it could possibly qualify, but I think that would potentially create confusion.

A clarification on whether it counts as successful would be good.

@ChristopherRandles Was the perigee above 150km? Then according to the conditions it would count, no? The word successfully is the sticking point I guess but I'm inclined to count it

bought Ṁ25 150–159 YES

tfw you have 10 days with no SpaceX launches

@Mqrius

bought Ṁ100 <120 NO

Above tweet counts launches, not launches to orbit, so it's currently off by one compared to this market.

bought Ṁ50 120–129 NO

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