How many distinct companies will hold the spot for [my favorite language model for >= 1 contiguous month] in 2026?
3
Ṁ1592026
1D
1W
1M
ALL
6%
1
17%
2
26%
3
21%
4
17%
5
13%
6+
My favorite model to interact with personally as I e.g. do work, not my favorite to fine-tune or use for many calls via API to e.g. label data. If a company produces Model that is my favorite and then they produce Model+ which I switch to, that counts as contiguous.
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Sort by:
@Bayesian Updated the description to clarify this some amount. I think that speed is a factor for personal use, open source is less of a factor although I do care a minor amount about privacy. I think it is unlikely being locally hosted will matter but it seems possible.
I think that OpenAI via GPT-4, Anthropic via Claude 3.5/6, OpenAI maybe via o1 family, and Google via Gemini 2.5 Pro would have qualified previously.
Related questions
Related questions
Will any 10 trillion+ parameter language model that follows instructions be released to the public before 2026?
40% chance
Most popular language model from OpenAI competitor by 2026?
20% chance
In 2030, will there be more than 10 $5bn companies that are some form of large language model focused on a specific task. ie not Microsoft, not OpenAI,
62% chance
DeepSeek will have the best language model in the world by a clear margin as of Feb 1 2026
5% chance
Best available language model from an OpenAI competitor by 2026
73% chance
Will Transformer based architectures still be SOTA for language modelling by 2026?
80% chance
Will a Large Language Model be listed as an author on a peer-reviewed paper by the end of 2025?
34% chance
Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2025?
45% chance
Will a language model that runs locally on a consumer cellphone beat GPT4 by EOY 2026?
84% chance
By 2030, will large language models still be at the peak of AI? [DRAFT]
25% chance