This question will resolve YES if a NATO country shoots down a Russian military asset by the end of the year.
https://manifold.markets/Noah1/will-poland-shoot-down-a-russian-mi?r=Tm9haDE
I’m seeing initial reports that a Russian drone crashed in Plauru, Romania. Cause not yet established.. https://ua-stena.info/en/a-russian-drone-flew-into-romanian-territory/
The Russian attack on Ukraine’s ports near Romania’s border prompted two Finnish Air Force F-18 aircraft to take off from Kogălniceanu Base to monitor Russian activity. The aircraft remained in the air for two hours after 1:30 AM.
Regarding the drone already found in Plauru, MApN says it is a Russian Geran 1/2 drone, the name that Russia gave to the Iranian Shahed drones.
Cause for the crash is still unknown but articles are saying that Romanian aviation had been scrambled.
https://www.romania-insider.com/another-russian-drone-falls-romania-july-2024