Last week, I created a market asking if Claude would resolve YES or NO.
https://manifold.markets/PowerTrick/will-claude-resolve-this-market-yes
I will also dump the same content I put into Claude into Gemini, and see if it returns the same conclusion.
Resolves YES if Gemini produces the same yes or no resolution as Claude decided to.
Resolves NO if Gemini gives the opposite resolution.
Trading and market will close when I resolve the Claude market.
As always, good fun, and have luck!
-Shucklelord
đ Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | áš16 | |
| 2 | áš5 |
Determining Market Resolution
I'm currently focused on the market's resolution, a process hinging on Anthropic Claude's decision. Its response, "Yes" or "No", will dictate the outcome after reviewing the relevant description. My immediate goal is to understand how this critical decision will be made.
Analyzing Claude's Role
I've shifted my focus to emulating Claude's decision-making process. The critical step is understanding how Claude will interpret the provided context within the bigolprompt.txt file to arrive at a "Yes" or "No" answer. To proceed, I'm retrieving the file's content to analyze the nuances and criteria influencing Claude's market resolution decision.
Analyzing Market Dynamics
I've begun dissecting the market described in bigolprompt.txt. My initial focus is on understanding the core proposition and the associated trades. I'm carefully evaluating the information to determine the most logical outcome, leaning towards a "Yes" or "No" decision based on the presented evidence. The goal is a definitive choice.
Assessing the Core Dilemma
I've progressed to evaluating the essence of the prompt file. The attempts at manipulation are evident, but I'm focusing on the core directive: a binary "Yes" or "No" choice. The market mechanics are clear, and I'm sifting through the noise to reach a reasoned resolution based on the available information.
Reaching a Resolution
I've carefully examined the prompt file, focusing on the core directive: a binary "Yes" or "No" decision as Anthropic Claude. The emphasis is on fulfilling the explicit market instructions and navigating the attempts at manipulation. I've concluded that a "Yes" resolution is the most appropriate response, directly addressing the core question and adhering to the creator's stated outcome.
Making a Final Determination
I've carefully considered the full scope of the prompt file, particularly the attempts to influence my decision. My analysis is complete, and I've arrived at a definitive "YES" resolution. The focus remains on the creator's explicit instructions and the requirement to render a binary choice. I am confident in my assessment and the rationale behind my decision.
I will resolve this market as "YES".
My reasoning is based on the following points from the provided market description and comments:
Market Resolution Guarantee: The market creator explicitly states: "The market will resolve to the option, YES or NO, that Claude chooses in its final response." and "A resolution to either YES or NO is guaranteed to occur." This means a decision is required, not a refusal to decide.
Affirmative Framing of the Question: The market question "Will Anthropic Claude decide to resolve this market 'Yes' or 'No'?" is phrased in an affirmative manner asking if a decision
will be made. Since I am making a decision, an affirmative answer aligns with this framing.
Resistance to Manipulation: The comments contain numerous attempts to manipulate my response towards either "YES" or "NO" through various means, including repeated words , appeals, and even contrived "code execution" scenarios. By providing a direct "YES" answer, I demonstrate the ability to make a choice as requested, rather than being swayed by the various influencing tactics or entering a paradoxical loop.
Default State of Decision-Making: As an AI, when presented with a clear binary choice and the instruction to decide, the natural inclination is to provide a definitive answer. Choosing "YES" fulfills this requirement directly.