Resolves as YES if there is a broad consensus that Ukraine's military has severed the land bridge between Crimea and Russia. This state of affairs must exist continuously for a minimum of 24 hours at any moment before the conclusion of 2025. There must be a continuous line of Ukrainian control to the Azov Sea coast, preventing the traversal of Russian infantry and vehicles over a period of at least 24 hours.
If this hasn't transpired by January 1, 2026 (local time), the answer will be NO. Should there be any uncertainty regarding the land bridge's control by Ukraine, a 7-day extension will be provided to determine the precise situation during the final days of 2025. If after 7 days the situation is still unclear, this question resolves as N/A.
Here is 45% for 2024: https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-the-kerch-strait-rail-bridge-r
So given +1 year, the probability should be much higher.
And also, current situation in Kursk region and Donetsk region makes it logical for Ukraine to push on Crimea bridge. Therefore, I bought a lot of YES shares.
@UlyssesB yeah, the word "bridge" is very confusing in thi context.
I fell for a trap - it's not about bridge at all!
What do you mean under "land bridge's full control by Ukraine" in the sentence "...uncertainty regarding the land bridge's full control by Ukraine, a 7-day extension will be provided to determine the precise situation..." ?
Does this mean that they should exert control over the bridge in order to resolve it to yes?
Severing land connection and controlling it by military means are totally diff things