Will OpenAI's open source model have 120B params?
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Dec 31
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  • Any reasonable argument for the model having between 115 billion and 125 billion (allows rounding) parameters or active parameters counts as YES.

  • 120b in the official name counts as YES regardless of the true exact number of parameters.

  • Resolves when the first OpenAI open source model is released in or after August 2025.

  • Resolves to NA if no such model released on Jan. 1st 2026.

  • Resolves NO if the first open source model released is not 120b.

  • Resolves YES if they release multiple models at the same time and one counts.

  • Open source is defined leniently as open weights.

  • Update 2025-08-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): To clarify what 'at the same time' means for multiple model releases:

    • If a qualifying 120B model is released within the same minute as another model, the market will resolve YES.

    • If models are released in different announcements on the same day (e.g., morning vs. afternoon), the market will resolve based on the first model announced. If that first model is not 120B, the market resolves NO.

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If there is e.g. another 20b model released within the same minute as a 120b model, it counts as YES. But if e.g. they are in different announcements, one in the morning and one in the afternoon, and the 20b is first, this resolves NO.

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