The remaining options of this market will resolve "Yes" if OpenAI publicly releases the weights of a reasoning model (e.g., o1, o3) or a large language model (LLM) that is at least as advanced as GPT-3. When an option's date passes, it will resolve to “No”.
To count as released, the model must be publicly accessible. waitlist signups where only a portion of the general public has access by some date is sufficient for a YES resolution. A model with some commercial or other restrictions is also sufficient, as long as users have access to all the weights.
Modified but similar resolution to this polymarket market.
See also:
/Bayesian/when-will-openai-announce-o4-full
/Bayesian/when-will-openai-release-gpt45-ULpyUuqd2L
/Bayesian/when-will-openai-release-an-open-so (this market)
/Bayesian/when-will-deepseek-release-r2
/Bayesian/when-will-deepseek-release-v4
/Bayesian/when-will-xai-release-grok-4
“Sources familiar with OpenAI’s plans tell me that CEO Sam Altman’s AI lab is readying an open-weight model that will debut as soon as next week with providers other than just OpenAI and Microsoft’s Azure servers.” https://archive.is/7xt2e
https://polymarket.com/event/will-openai-release-an-open-source-model-before-july
Polymarket says 84% before July!