Minor changes to the name, such as using "Grok 4-reasoning" or "Grok 4-beta" instead of "Grok 4", are acceptable when determining the release.

To count as released, the model must be publicly accessible. waitlist signups where only a portion of the general public has access by some date is sufficient for a YES resolution.

If it is available through some API only this counts as a release.

See also:

/Bayesian/when-will-openai-announce-o4

/Bayesian/when-will-openai-release-gpt45-ULpyUuqd2L

/Bayesian/when-will-openai-release-an-open-so

/Bayesian/when-will-deepseek-release-r2

/Bayesian/when-will-deepseek-release-v4

/Bayesian/when-will-xai-release-grok-4 (this market)

/Bayesian/when-will-anthropic-release-claude-qZd5QEQ225

/Bayesian/when-will-meta-release-llama-5-6h9UypqOdp