Will SpaceX Dragon Rescue Boeing Starliner Astronauts?
88
Ṁ49k
2026
98.2%
chance

Boeing's first crewed Starliner mission is having some difficulties, and return has now been delayed until June 22 at the earliest. "This is the second delay in Starliner's scheduled return date"

https://www.space.com/boeing-starliner-first-astronaut-mission-return-delayed-june-22

Resolves YES only if BOTH Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams both return to earth alive on a SpaceX dragon.

Resolves NO if anything else. Examples: If they return on some other craft, or one returns on a Russian craft, or one of them dies, etc.

[Edit Aug 2: If only one astronaut returns on a Dragon, this market stays open until there is certainty about the second astronaut.]

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They're leaving them up there until 2025??

bought Ṁ100 NO

Presumably this and https://manifold.markets/TimothyBandors/will-boeings-starliner-return-with should not sum to more than 100

Will Boeing's Starliner return with an astronaut?
48% chance. Following an iffy docking at the International Space Station last week, Boeing managed to deliver a pair of NASA astronauts to the orbital lab. The stressful Starliner saga continues as the crew capsule developed more leaks in its service module. NASA is currently evaluating its ability to return the duo back to Earth. In an update shared on Monday, NASA revealed that the Starliner teams are assessing the impact that five helium leaks would have on the remainder of the mission. “While Starliner is docked, all the manifolds are closed per normal mission operations preventing helium loss from the tanks,” the space agency wrote. Source: https://gizmodo.com/boeing-starliner-spacecraft-fifth-helium-leak-iss-nasa-1851534977 This market resolves yes if the currently docked Starliner returns with an astronaut. It could be any of the people on the ISS onboard. This market resolves NO if it undocks with no astronaut. FINE PRINT: If Starliner undocks, a mission critical error happens and they redock, the market is extended. If it explodes and kills them, still resolves YES.

Except that one counts Yes even if the astronauts are dead.

@Shihan they should sum to <100, not >100. Together they cover the possibilities

  • at least one astronaut leaves on Starliner

  • both successfully rescued by Dragon

leaving out such possibilities as

  • both die on the station

  • both rescued by Soyuz

  • one rescued by Dragon, other as above

Note that that market is for whether an astronaut ever returns on the currently docked Starliner. It doesn't have to be Butch and Suni.

Resolves YES only if BOTH Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams both return to earth alive on "a SpaceX dragon".

"a" SpaceX dragon? singular? If one each on crew 8 and crew 9?

Ah, good clarification question. If one each on crew 8 and crew 9, it would still resolve Yes.

military industrial complex insane leverage vs NASA safety procedures

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