Thanks to the Moderators who unresolved the market! I will wait for independent evidence that the drive that happened to a customer was indeed autonomous (or is going to be autonomous). As a reminder:

• no teleop resolves 100%

• with teleop resolves 50%

@SimoneRomeo what would that independent evidence look like?

@Bair not sure. What do you suggest? Surely if the service scales up fast it won't even need indipendent evidence. I guess I may need to evaluate all evidence we have by the end of the year and decide about a percentage between 50%-100% according to how autonomous it appears to be

@SimoneRomeo I asked because I think it's very unlikely that you'll get any kind of evidence that skeptics will find satisfactory. So the whole point of waiting is unclear to me. Resolving the market before the video was out was a bit premature, but after the full video was published, I don't think it makes much sense to wait for "evidence".

I don't doubt that the delivery was autonomous, because I know that FSD 13 in customer cars is capable of driving many thousands of miles without major interventions despite what FSD tracker says.

@Bair the delivery was totally autonomous, but I doubt that there might have been a remote operator involved (Musk said "no remote operator in control at any moment" which I originally interpreted as no remote operator, but on a closer look it might mean that a remote operator supervised the whole trip and just didn't intervene). Still, I think the feat fulfills over (maybe well over) a 50% resolution at this point, just maybe not 100% yet. I'm assuming things will clarify as we still have 6 months, no rush to resolve and we can evaluate based on how easily autonomous deliveries upscale, the reports and Musk comments in different situations

@SimoneRomeo it's no rush for you, but not for me. If I knew you were going to wait until the year end, I wouldn't put as much mana into this market.

@Bair the resolution of this market is end of 2025. If you give me proof that Tesla didn't hire any remote operator to supervise the Tesla delivered I'll happily resolve it right now

I don’t really doubt it’s happened but I haven’t seen any independent confirmation other than Musk’s own claims.

@MachiNi there's the post from the customer plus Tesla videos about the whole trip

https://x.com/Jagarzaf/status/1938685279021265094?t=KnPEQxv2bepuIVyr4cj9IA&s=19

@SimoneRomeo I found it too but it’s still not quite independent, especially concerning the autonomy criteria.

@MachiNi you're right regarding the autonomy criteria. I might have been too quick to resolve. Is there any way to unresolve the market?

@SimoneRomeo @mods can I get support to reopen the market? I have been too quick to resolve.

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1938682871105102254?t=sAFe4RpDJaEfB2F0KBAg-g&s=19

human teleoperator

How involved are they for this to count?

E.g. I'd expect the following to count as a human teleoperator:

• A human is watching a video stream from a single car at all times, with a remote stop button

• A human drives in a car behind the vehicle, with a remote stop button

And the following not to count, but unsure:

• The system alerts a human for unideal driving conditions (e.g. heavy rain), who can remotely stop the car

• The system alerts a human for if the car is uncertain about a manuever, who decides if the car proceeds

• A human carefully plans the ride in advance, e.g. what roads to take on a map

• A human watches over a fleet of ~100 cars, with an AI system having them focus on the 4 video streams most likely for a human safety driver to want to intervene in, with a remote stop button

@AdamJones overall I agree with you. I don't think it's possible to define all cases and I may resolve this market as a percentage based on:

• How autonomous the system is

• How scalable the solution is

I just sold all my manas as I realize it's going to be a controversial market, so I'll avoid being biased

@SimoneRomeo so you think it was 100% autonomous and scalable?

@MachiNi I have based the resolution on Musk's post, but thinking back, I agree I should have waited for indipendent confirmation.

Obvious question after the weekend: do Tesla employees in passenger's seat and a stop button count as "safety drivers"?

@AIBear if a Tesla employee sits in the driver's seat with a stop button and delivers Tesla cars personally to buyers' houses, I'll resolve it to 10% out of good willingness for the immense work that it will require

@SimoneRomeo The question was about a similar setup to this weekends taxi launch, i.e. an employee sits in the PASSENGER seat (presumably for improved optics)...

@AIBear yes, got it. I think it will be different as Tesla won't be deciding to invest money into a new service that would have no return. Also, if a supervisor sits in the passenger seat when the car is delivered, how will they go back to office? Anyway, if it really happens, I think resolving to 10% probability should be fair. What do you think?

@SimoneRomeo That's totally OK with me and agree its much less likely here, just got a bit burned few times recently, so asking for very specific clarifications. Thanks.

Autonomously with or without a safety driver?

@tobiasscheuer if there's a human teleoperator somewhere for safety purposes I'll resolve it to 50%

@SimoneRomeo ok, and a safety driver in the car? It could be driving autonomously but with someone to take the wheel in case of issues. That's how most autonomous car operations start out

@tobiasscheuer that won't count.

@SimoneRomeo thank you for the clarification. Although it seems Tesla favors the remote safety driver option, since that's what they chose for their first test runs in Austin