Can also arbitrage this against the party market https://manifold.markets/kl938/which-party-will-win-the-2026-texas and the primary market https://manifold.markets/NzJack0n/who-will-win-the-2026-texas-senate

[Party market Dem %] MUST EQUAL [(Talarico % in this market x Talarico % to win primary) + (Crockett % in this market x Crockett % to win primary)]

However right now we get 20% chance dems win = .51 x .49 + .10 x .50 = .30
So this market is far too optimistic on their chances to win.

Which party will win the 2026 Texas Senate race?

Need to arbitrage this market with calculating P(candidate wins) from this market https://manifold.markets/LongoBongo/who-will-win-the-2026-senate-electi and then dividing by chance to win the primary from this market https://manifold.markets/NzJack0n/who-will-win-the-2026-texas-senate
Right now those markets give
Talarico: 42%, Crockett: 33%

Who will win the 2026 Senate Election in Texas?

Resolution criteria The 2026 United States Senate election in Texas will be held on November 3, 2026. The winner will be determined by the candidate who receives the most votes in the general election. Primary elections will be held on March 3, 2026. The market resolves to whichever candidate wins the general election. Results can be verified at Texas Secretary of State Elections Division or major news outlets covering the election results.